CMSC International issued a research report stating that LI AUTO-W (02015, LI.US) delivered second-quarter results below expectations, with sales growth weakened during the new vehicle launch gap period. However, profitability remained stable with slight improvements. The delivery of the new pure electric model i8 has proceeded smoothly, with management expecting cumulative deliveries of 8,000 to 10,000 units by the end of September. Production capacity and supply chain stability remain solid, and market acceptance of the i8 has exceeded expectations.

The firm recommends buying on dips and maintains a "Buy" rating while lowering the Hong Kong stock target price to HK$115 and the US stock target price to US$30, equivalent to 19 times price-to-earnings ratio for fiscal year 2026, representing a 27% discount relative to the company's historical average valuation.

CMSC International noted that the current market is overly pessimistic about the company's product cycle, overlooking the company's refined management efficiency capabilities, channel expansion opportunities in lower-tier markets, and overseas expansion potential. The company holds over 100 billion in cash reserves, providing sufficient resources to weather short-term headwinds. The firm expects the third quarter to represent the delivery volume low point, with the i6 launch expected to reverse market pessimism.

The firm has lowered its net profit forecasts (non-GAAP) for Li Auto for 2025 to 2027 by 48%, 28%, and 25% respectively, reflecting profit pressure during the new product gap period.