On April 20, Moneta Markets noted that prices for gold and silver have seen significant recent gains following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during a ceasefire period. The announcement by President Trump that the strait would remain open during the truce injected safe-haven confidence into the market. This development spurred a more than 10% plunge in crude oil prices, propelled US stock markets to record highs, and led to a notable narrowing of inflation risk premiums.
Gold futures briefly touched the 50-day simple moving average of $4,917 per ounce during the session, ultimately settling at $4,849 per ounce, a gain of 0.80%. This movement reflects structural adjustments to precious metals within global investment portfolios and high market sensitivity to geopolitical dynamics and the future policy environment, according to Moneta Markets.
Market trading data indicated that silver futures also experienced considerable volatility, rising 3.15% for the week to close at $80.90 per ounce. This marked the fourth consecutive week of positive growth, with prices up 32% compared to the end of March. Moneta Markets analysts suggest that while the geopolitical situation appears positive in the near term, overall uncertainty persists—Iran has not independently confirmed all conditions, and the US naval blockade on Iran could potentially continue.
Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund's energy director warned that even under the most optimistic scenario, restoring actual production of oil and natural gas could take up to two years. This structural uncertainty continues to underpin the investment value of precious metals while simultaneously influencing the risk appetite and trading strategies of market participants.
Looking ahead, Moneta Markets believes the medium to long-term bullish thesis for gold and silver remains robust. Central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, with official purchases projected to reach approximately 755 tonnes by 2026. Goldman Sachs and other major institutions forecast year-end gold prices exceeding $5,400, with some predictions reaching around $6,000. For silver, a global supply shortfall has persisted for six years, with prices supported by industrial demand, particularly from the new energy and electronics sectors.
Moneta Markets analysis indicates that current oil price volatility is alleviating inflationary pressures. Combined with continued inflows from institutional and ETF investors, precious metals are expected to maintain their structural upward trend. Investors should monitor key resistance and support levels, adapting flexible trading strategies in response to geopolitical and economic data shifts to navigate potential price volatility and short-term correction risks.