Geopolitical tensions simmer as reports indicate President Trump plans to meet with Gulf state leaders on the sidelines of the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in New York next Tuesday. The discussions are expected to center on post-conflict arrangements concerning Iran, with the administration's proposed strategy anticipated to be finalized after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Israeli sources suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also seeks a meeting with Trump during his visit, though no official schedule has been confirmed yet.

On the economic data front, the U.S. labor market continues to show mixed signals. Initial jobless claims have dropped to 196,000, while continuing claims have fallen to their lowest level since January 2024, indicating limited corporate layoff pressure. However, consumer surveys point to a deteriorating job-search environment. The combination of low layoffs and low hiring activity suggests a labor market characterized by stability in existing positions but weakness in new job creation, leaving the true health of the employment sector open to debate.

Where to begin

Looking at futures trading activity on September 17, 2026, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 940.26 yuan per gram and settled at 932.32 yuan per gram, down 0.58% from the previous day's close. Trading volume reached 41,087 lots with open interest of 129,725 lots. During overnight trading, the main gold contract opened at 945.68 yuan per gram and closed at 941.52 yuan per gram, up 0.99% from the afternoon settlement. For silver, the main Shanghai contract opened at 15,805 yuan per kilogram and settled at 15,558 yuan per kilogram, down 1.49% from the previous close, with volume of 413,510 lots and open interest of 148,495 lots. Overnight trading saw the silver contract open at 15,963 yuan per kilogram and close at 15,992 yuan per kilogram, up 2.79% from the afternoon settlement.

In the U.S. bond market on September 17, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.01%, unchanged from the previous day, while the spread between 10-year and 2-year yields stood at 0.27%, narrowing by 0.06%.

Position data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that for the Au2610 contract, long positions increased by 3 lots while short positions decreased by 3 lots compared to the previous day. Total trading volume for gold contracts reached 438,556 lots, up 32.13% from the prior session. For the Ag2610 contract, long positions decreased by 44 lots while short positions increased by 2 lots. Total silver contract volume reached 846,386 lots, up 21.88% from the previous day.

Precious metals ETF holdings saw modest changes, with gold ETF holdings rising to 1,052.844 tonnes, an increase of 0.856 tonnes from the previous session. Silver ETF holdings remained flat at 15,226.98 tonnes.

On the arbitrage front, the domestic gold premium stood at 9.86 yuan per gram on September 17, while the silver premium was 299.81 yuan per kilogram. The gold-to-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange main contracts was approximately 59.93, up 0.93% from the previous day, while the offshore ratio stood at 66.92, down 0.90%.

Fundamental data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange showed trading volume of 37,364 kilograms for gold on September 17, 2026, down 22.62% from the previous day. Silver trading volume reached 362,424 kilograms, up 35.73%. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery volume was 2,010 kilograms.

Strategic outlook

For gold, the outlook remains cautiously bullish. With the rate hike now behind us, the near-term macroeconomic headwinds have largely cleared, supporting improved market risk appetite. Demand for gold investment is likely to strengthen modestly, suggesting prices should maintain a fluctuating-to-firm trajectory. The Au2610 contract is expected to trade within a range of 930 to 960 yuan per gram.

For silver, the fundamental logic mirrors that of gold, with prices expected to remain range-bound. The Ag2610 contract is projected to trade between 15,500 and 16,500 yuan per kilogram.

Arbitrage strategies are recommended to be put on hold, as are options strategies. Key risks include overseas liquidity concerns and continued outflows from speculative positions.