At the day session close, domestic base metals showed a mixed performance. Nickel futures led the gains with a 1.2% increase, followed by tin futures rising 0.74% and lead futures edging up 0.06%. Other metals declined, with copper futures falling 0.53% to lead the losses, while other metals experienced minor fluctuations. Aluminum oxide main contracts dropped 0.69%, and cast aluminum main contracts declined 0.32%. Lithium carbonate main contracts surged 3.73%, while polysilicon fell 0.4% and industrial silicon rose 1.92%. European shipping main contracts gained 2.45% to close at 2282.3.

In the ferrous sector, all products finished higher with iron ore leading the advance with a 0.9% gain, followed by hot-rolled coil rising 0.8%. Coking coal and coke both increased 0.71%. In overseas markets, as of 15:03, base metals collectively rose with London tin leading at 1.42%, followed by London copper up 0.74%, while other metals showed modest gains.

In precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold declined 0.27% while COMEX silver advanced 0.17%. Domestically, gold futures fell 1.72% and silver futures dropped 1.92%. Platinum main contracts decreased 1.81%, and palladium main contracts declined 0.59%.

Regarding macroeconomic developments domestically: China announced its mineral resource inventory, revealing 31 world-leading indicators. The country ranks first globally in reserves of 14 minerals including rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. By 2025, China is expected to lead global production of 17 minerals including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently maintaining the world's largest mineral production and smelting capacity, China's mining industry output reached approximately 32.7 trillion yuan in 2025, accounting for over 23% of GDP. Substantial growth in resource reserves has established a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency.

Xiong Zili, Director of the Geological Exploration Management Department at the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China will continue implementing a new round of mineral exploration breakthrough strategies. The ministry will enhance the coordinated system for exploration, production, supply, reserve, and sales of strategic minerals while strengthening security risk monitoring. Focus will remain on critical strategic minerals like copper, iron, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, while consolidating资源优势 in rare earths, tungsten, and tin. Spatially, efforts will emphasize land-sea coordination and expand survey, exploration, and development spaces through intensified basic geological surveys. The goal is to identify developable mineral deposits by 2030 and rapidly form new production capacity.

The People's Bank of China conducted 259 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 60 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing today. The USD/CNY central parity rate was set at 6.8608 on April 29.

In currency markets, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 98.72 as of 15:03. Market participants are monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Powell's characterization of the committee's consensus on recent inflation trends and future policy direction, particularly as his term approaches conclusion. With rising oil prices potentially sustaining elevated inflation, investors seek clarity on the committee's risk assessment. While the labor market remains stable though not robust, rate cuts amid high inflation would significantly impact yield curves and the broader economy, though near-term rate hikes remain unexpected.

Fed observers anticipate minimal changes to the policy statement but note potential subtle adjustments. Officials might modify labor market descriptions to acknowledge stabilization despite slower hiring. Some members may prefer signaling that the next policy move could be a hike rather than a cut, given inflationary pressures exacerbated by Middle East tensions. Removing the word "additional" from the phrase "the extent of any additional policy firming" could indicate a hawkish shift, as it currently implies a dovish bias toward continued rate cuts. The Fed implemented three rate cuts in late 2025.

Energy remains the key variable amid expectations that the Fed will maintain rates. Oil futures above $85 continue elevating inflation expectations and amplifying Treasury yield volatility. Bond markets will stay sensitive to inflation risks while Middle East tensions involving Iran and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. Discussions about potential rate hikes later this year continue, with normalized yields requiring oil prices to retreat to the $70 range. Stabilized energy prices should lower inflation expectations, allowing Treasury yields to reflect more fundamental levels.

Key data releases include Australia's March CPI, Switzerland's April ZEW investor confidence, eurozone industrial and economic sentiment indices, Germany's preliminary April CPI, US housing starts and building permits, durable goods orders, and Canada's interest rate decision. Market participants will also monitor the Canadian central bank's policy report, US Senate committee votes on Fed chair nomination, and policy press conferences by Canadian central bank officials.

Crude oil prices advanced with US oil up 0.66% and Brent crude rising 0.99% as of 15:03. UN data shows a 95.3% decline in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, with global food prices rising 6% and European crude prices up 53%. The UN Conference on Trade and Development has launched a tracking platform monitoring shipping, food and energy prices, and financial market dynamics affected by the Hormuz crisis.

HSBC research indicates the UAE's OPEC+ exit will have limited short-term market impact but may gradually weaken the group's supply discipline and price management capabilities. Global oil supply remains largely unchanged since late February due to ongoing Gulf export restrictions. The UAE has limited capacity to increase production during shipping disruptions, with the Abu Dhabi crude pipeline operating near its 1.8 million barrel per day capacity. Once Hormuz transit resumes, the UAE could gradually raise output不受OPEC+ quota constraints, potentially increasing ADNOC's production to over 4.5 million barrels daily compared to its OPEC+ quota of approximately 3.4 million barrels. Any supply increases would likely be phased over 12-18 months rather than immediate.

The UAE's sudden exit reveals fractures within the producer alliance. Additional departures by quota-compliant countries frustrated with non-compliance could ultimately diminish OPEC's relevance, following previous exits by Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola due to quota dissatisfaction or strategic shifts. Analysts suggest other dissatisfied members might reconsider membership, with Kazakhstan identified as a potential candidate given its significant production exceeding quotas last year. Nigeria's growing focus on domestic refining reduces export dependence and may weaken its quota compliance motivation. Venezuela represents another potential exit candidate as production recovers faster than expected amid potentially more US-friendly political alignment.