JPMorgan has released a research report stating that, following a two-to-three-year profit downturn for property stocks, the upcoming earnings announcements from July to November—primarily interim results, with some full-year figures—are expected to initiate a multi-year profit upcycle. The bank forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in core net profit and a 2%-3% rise in dividends per share. This anticipated recovery is driven by improved margins in Hong Kong property development, a stabilization in certain rental income segments, and a reduction in financing costs.

In the short term, the bank expects the sector to remain highly sensitive to the rapidly evolving narrative surrounding the direction of interest rates. Regarding its stock selection strategy, JPMorgan favors companies that meet the following criteria: first, those with lower sensitivity to interest rates; second, those with earnings poised for recovery over the next two to three years; third, those actively engaged in capital recycling; and fourth, those showing operational improvements in key business segments, such as a rebound in spot rents for Central office space or a stabilization in Hong Kong retail spot rents.