According to analysis, Wall Street institutions including Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and Citigroup believe that investors who have taken refuge in energy stocks amid the Middle East conflict should not become overly complacent, as the soaring sector may be nearing its peak. Even before the war-driven spike in oil prices, the energy sector was already the top performer among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500. The surge in crude prices has further extended the sector's market leadership. Data shows that U.S. oil and gas stocks have climbed 29% year-to-date, far outpacing the broader market, even after Monday's broad market advance fueled by optimism that the key oil transit route, the Strait of Hormuz, might reopen. In the roughly two weeks since the outbreak of Middle East hostilities, traders have continued pouring money into energy shares, despite the White House's attempts to calm concerns by pledging that the oil price spike would not persist. Ben Cook, portfolio manager at Hennessy Advisors, stated, "Have these stocks priced in oil prices above current forecasts? Most likely, yes." He noted that Wall Street has been trying to balance the risk of oil prices remaining elevated for an extended period against the Trump administration's efforts to talk down prices, alongside the more critical supply and demand fundamentals. Analysts at Jefferies indicated that active and passive U.S. funds have poured so much capital into the energy sector that the rolling total over the past 12 weeks has grown to 7% of assets under management, "exceeding all but the most extreme periods over the past 15 years." Andrew Greenbaum, Senior Vice President of Equity Research Product Management at Jefferies, said in a report, "This is approaching topping territory." Greenbaum pointed out that, at the index level, the weight of energy stocks in the S&P 500 has jumped by more than a third in just 55 trading days, rising from approximately 2.7% to 3.7% of the index. These movements suggest that "much of the positioning adjustment is likely done." He is not alone in questioning whether the sector's substantial gains this year can be sustained. Citigroup's global sector selection model on Monday shifted to a short position on the U.S. energy sector, predicting it will fall over the next month, while technology, industrial, and financial sectors are expected to perform better. Additionally, analysts at Raymond James noted in a client report on Monday that, given the strong advance in energy stocks since the start of the year, investors have begun to ask whether the market has "partially front-run the impact of the Middle East war."