Gold Market Outlook:

On June 29th, spot gold managed a 1.35% rebound last Friday, closing at $4,081.02 per ounce. However, this modest gain fails to conceal a stark reality—the price of gold has now declined for four consecutive weeks. Since reaching its historical peak of $5,596 on January 29th, the gold price has plummeted by approximately 29%. The once-revered safe-haven asset is currently experiencing its longest weekly losing streak since 2023. Concurrently, tensions are escalating over the Strait of Hormuz, with renewed military friction between US and Iranian forces over the weekend.

In the short term, gold continues to face significant pressure. Variables such as non-farm payroll data, US-Iran negotiations, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials each have the potential to trigger fresh market volatility. However, as some strategists note, when countries increase oil production and revenue flows resume, these funds may not all flow into US Treasuries but could instead return to the gold market. The repeated battles around the $4,000 level may simply represent a sharp pause in this prolonged bull market.

From a technical perspective, the consecutive daily bullish candles suggest the possibility of an upward rebound and price expansion this week. However, caution is advised. The four-hour chart currently shows resistance below $4,100, with Bollinger Bands continuing to constrict. The overall weak structure remains unchanged and could potentially reverse the daily uptrend at any moment. Therefore, until the non-farm payroll data is released this week, a short-term trading approach is recommended. Avoid fixating on a single direction or insisting on trend continuation; instead, remain flexible and ready to switch between long and short positions.

For the beginning of the week, key support to watch is at $4,020. A break below this level would warrant a shift in strategy towards selling on rebounds. In the short term, focus on the area above $4,040 for a continued test of the $4,100 mark or the $4,130 zone. Key resistance to watch on the upside is at $4,150. Short-term strategy: Consider buying near $4,055, with a stop-loss at $4,040, targeting a move up to $4,100.