Jefferies released a research report indicating that it expects the mainland banking sector to achieve steady improvement in profitability in 2026, supported by a moderate macroeconomic recovery and low policy volatility. The firm anticipates that the narrowing of net interest margins will slow, driving a recovery in net interest income growth. It forecasts a comprehensive rebound in pre-provision operating profits for the covered banks in 2026, with earnings projected to increase by approximately 3.4% year-on-year.

The report notes that capital flows are expected to continue supporting the Chinese banking sector. Particularly, under new accounting standards, insurance companies have stronger incentives to increase allocations to high-yield stocks classified into FVOCI accounts, which are anticipated to become consistent and stable marginal buyers. Jefferies believes the Chinese banking sector offers selective appeal, favoring stocks that combine sustained capital flow support with restored earnings visibility. Its top picks are Bank of China (03988) for H-shares and Bank Of Ningbo Co.,Ltd. (002142.SZ) for A-shares, both rated "Buy."