As the year draws to a close, the real estate industry is undergoing a period of reflection and forecasting. At the "Ding Zuyu Reviews the Property Market" 2026 annual conference on January 7, industry veteran observer Ding Zuyu, integrating product innovation practices with multi-dimensional data analysis, explicitly stated that China's real estate sector is expected to reach a bottom and stabilize in 2026. This assessment closely aligns with recent industry outlooks from the China Index Academy and E-House China Research Institute.

The China Index Academy emphasized that 2026, being the inaugural year of the "16th Five-Year Plan," will see proactive policy support and improvements in supply-demand dynamics driving the market towards finding its bottom. E-House China Research Institute, supported by year-end sales recovery data from property developers, corroborated the foundation for stabilization following an accelerated clearance of industry risks. The current scale of real estate market transactions is receding from its peak. According to CRIC estimates, the transaction area for commercial housing in 2025 was approximately 890 million square meters, reverting to 2009 levels. Within this, the transaction area for commercial residential housing was 740 million square meters, back to 2007 levels, while the estimated transaction value for commercial housing was 8.4 trillion yuan, returning to 2015 figures. Nevertheless, Ding Zuyu also offered the judgment that "real estate remains a pillar of economic development." Considering indicators such as the proportion of real estate value-added in GDP and the sales value of commercial housing, the sector's importance in the national economy remains significant. Ding Zuyu forecasts that over the next 10-20 years, the annual total transaction volume of commercial housing in China (including both primary and secondary markets) will stabilize within the range of 8 to 9 billion square meters, as the industry gradually transitions into a stable market dominated by existing property transactions. Data from CRIC shows that in 2025, the total transaction area for primary and secondary homes in 30 key cities was 326 million square meters, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing the smallest decline at 5%. Specifically, in 2025, new home sales volume in 100 cities saw a minor downturn, with Shanghai and Chengdu leading in terms of transaction area and value for new homes, respectively. The average price of new homes in 2025 remained largely flat compared to the previous year, with first-tier cities still recording a 2% increase. Regarding the secondary market, CRIC pointed out that the transaction area for existing homes in 30 key cities was approximately 214 million square meters, reaching a five-year high. In the land market, data from CRIC indicates a divergence in urban land conveyance, with industry scale primarily concentrated in 60 core cities. Looking at individual cities, Chongqing and Shanghai ranked first in land transaction area and value, respectively. Chongqing's land transaction area was 27.53 million square meters, a 36% year-on-year increase, while Shanghai's land auction revenue reached 256.5 billion yuan. Central and state-owned enterprises continued to be the main drivers of investment, with their land acquisition value increasing by 20% year-on-year compared to 2024. The plots acquired by the top ten enterprises in terms of land acquisition value in 2025 were highly concentrated in first and second-tier cities, accounting for over 85% of the total. Under the "production based on sales" model, resources are further concentrating in a limited number of core cities with active demand and strong market resilience. The China Index Academy also noted that the scales of the primary and secondary markets have essentially achieved a dynamic balance. Property developers have completely abandoned blind expansionist thinking in land acquisition, and local governments have returned to rational supply levels. Based on his market analysis, Ding Zuyu believes that signals indicating the real estate market is bottoming out have emerged. These include the supply-demand relationship tending towards dynamic balance, ongoing alleviation of inventory pressure, substantial space for demand for quality housing, a housing price adjustment cycle exceeding the international average, a deep adjustment already achieved in new construction starts, and the emergence of reversal signals in the secondary market, among others. Addressing key signals such as the alleviation of inventory pressure, Ding Zuyu pointed out that short-term housing inventory has stopped growing, medium-term inventory has peaked and begun to decline, and long-term inventory is trending towards stability. After excluding ineffective inventory, the effective inventory of commercial housing is about 5 billion square meters, equivalent to five to six times the annual sales area, which falls within a healthy range. Regarding reversal signals in the secondary market, Ding Zuyu indicated that the rental yield in some core city districts exceeds 3%; in some areas, the starting price for land auctions surpasses the prices of surrounding pre-owned homes. Concurrently, the volume of new listings in the secondary market is decreasing. According to CRIC statistics, the number of new secondary residential listings in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou dropped from a peak of 60,000 units in March 2025 to 45,000 units in November 2025. Furthermore, Ding Zuyu proposed that the bottoming out of the residential market still requires four definitive factors: policy certainty, price certainty, product certainty, and supply certainty. "Once these four certainties materialize, the industry's bottom will also be definitively established."