Abstract

Cognex will report fourth‑quarter results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; investors are watching revenue, margin stabilization, and EPS as management’s near‑term demand commentary and order trends set the tone for 2026.

Market Forecast

The market’s base case anticipates a sequentially softer holiday quarter as Cognex navigates uneven electronics and consumer‑exposed demand, with revenue forecast around $239.63 million, implied year‑over‑year growth of 8.60%, an EBIT estimate of $39.19 million, and EPS near $0.22; margin cadence is expected to compress from the prior quarter but remain supported by mix and cost discipline. Company‑level indicators point to gross profit margin trending in the mid‑to‑high 60% range and net profit margin normalizing with volume, though explicit quarterly guidance on margins is not provided; adjusted EPS is projected near $0.22, up roughly 41.80% year over year.

Within its core offerings, standard products and services are expected to drive the bulk of revenue this quarter with cautious growth as logistics and electronics customers time orders to project ramps. The segment with the strongest medium‑term potential remains standard products and services given its scale at $232.62 million last quarter and leverage to broad machine vision upgrades, while customer solutions for special applications provides incremental upside from targeted wins.

Last Quarter Review

Cognex’s prior quarter delivered revenue of $276.89 million, a gross profit margin of 67.64%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $17.66 million, a net profit margin of 6.38%, and adjusted EPS of $0.33, which increased by 65.00% year over year. A key highlight was outperformance versus internal and external expectations, with EBIT of $64.16 million and revenue exceeding consensus, reflecting disciplined operating execution and favorable mix. Main business performance showed standard products and services at $232.62 million and customer solutions for special applications at $44.27 million; growth favored standard products on stronger uptake in factory automation and selective logistics deployments.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Standard products and services

Standard products and services constitute Cognex’s largest revenue stream and the primary driver of quarterly variability. For the fourth quarter, order patterns from electronics and consumer‑tied customers appear mixed, consistent with a sequential revenue step down from the September quarter but supported year over year by ongoing automation investment. Inventory normalization among channel partners and end customers is expected to weigh on near‑term velocity, yet product launches in high‑resolution vision and barcode reading should sustain pricing and mix. We expect gross margin to remain resilient in the mid‑to‑high 60% range given the software content and differentiated algorithms embedded in the portfolio, even as volume moderation limits operating leverage. Management’s commentary on order intake and funnel conversion across logistics, consumer electronics, and automotive will be the critical swing factors for the standard products line this quarter.

Most promising business: Targeted customer solutions for special applications

Customer solutions for special applications, though smaller at $44.27 million last quarter, can create upside through milestone‑based project revenue and higher solution intensity. The pipeline includes deployments tied to advanced packaging inspection and traceability, areas that often carry higher average selling prices and service attach. Timing risk is inherent, but once milestones are recognized, the revenue contribution can disproportionately help operating income in a low‑volume quarter because of the high software and engineering mix. For the December quarter, we see a balanced scenario where one or two project recognitions can offset softness in certain discrete manufacturing verticals. A clearer cadence of bookings conversion would support revenue consistency into the first half of 2026.

Stock price drivers this quarter: Demand signals, margin trajectory, and 2026 visibility

Investors will concentrate on the interplay between demand signals in logistics and consumer electronics and the company’s commentary on early 2026 trends. A revenue print around $239.63 million with EPS near $0.22 embeds modest gross margin compression versus the 67.64% level achieved last quarter, so any variance in product mix or discounting could shift EPS meaningfully. Operating expense discipline remains a lever, but sustained margin support likely requires steady conversion of higher‑value product lines and targeted solutions. Guidance color on the first half of 2026, including the pacing of large customer ramps and the breadth of orders across regions, will shape post‑print performance. Management’s articulation of capital allocation and inventory positioning, especially relative to lead times, should further inform margin durability.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional previews, the balance of opinion leans cautious, with a majority expecting a sequential deceleration after a stronger September quarter and looking for conservative tone on near‑term demand. Several analysts highlight that revenue near $239.63 million and EPS around $0.22 would represent decent year‑over‑year progress but a step down quarter over quarter, reinforcing a preference to see clearer inflections in orders before turning more constructive. Commentary suggests watchfulness on electronics and logistics exposure, with an emphasis on backlog quality and the timing of project revenue in customer solutions. We note that more cautious views emphasize execution on costs and mix defense as positives, while reserving judgment on a sustained acceleration until clearer signs of order growth emerge for early 2026.