Oil Prices Advance as US-Iran Tensions Escalate Ahead of Weekend

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Crude oil prices climbed as U.S. President Donald Trump voiced dissatisfaction with negotiations aimed at averting an imminent American strike, prompting traders to brace for a potential escalation in tensions heading into the weekend.

WTI crude rose 2.8%, settling above $67 per barrel, marking its highest close since August. After criticizing Iran’s approach to talks as "insincere," Trump urged Iran to reach an agreement over its nuclear program, noting that "more talks are scheduled for today" following a failure to reach consensus earlier in the week in Geneva. Concurrently, the U.S. and several other nations advised their citizens to evacuate certain areas of the region.

"They cannot have nuclear weapons, and we are not satisfied with the way they are negotiating," Trump told reporters at the White House.

Oil prices have gained more than 15% year-to-date, driven by concerns that the U.S. may launch a strike against Iran, overshadowing widespread expectations of a supply surplus. Market sentiment has remained tense as Trump ordered the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since 2003, leaving the Iranian regime with limited time to negotiate a deal.

"President Trump has a stronger personal aversion to nuclear weapons, especially in the hands of Iran, than any of his predecessors—even more than his aversion to high oil prices," Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said during a briefing on Thursday.

According to prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. strike against Iran by March 1 surged on Friday. By around 3 p.m. New York time, the likelihood stood at approximately 26%, up from just 9% at the start of the trading session.

Traders noted that disagreements over Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities have also heightened concerns about a potential U.S. military response ahead of the weekend. International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors reported unexplained and ongoing activities at an Iranian uranium enrichment facility previously targeted by airstrikes.

As conflict risks cloud the outlook, traders will also closely monitor the OPEC+ supply meeting scheduled for Sunday.

WTI crude for April delivery rose 2.8%, settling at $67.02 per barrel.

Brent crude for April settlement, which expired on Friday, climbed to $72.40 per barrel.

The more actively traded May contract advanced 2.9%, settling at $72.87 per barrel.

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