Deposits have always been the foundation of commercial banks, serving as the cornerstone for credit issuance and the expansion of asset operations. Recently, a series of annual results briefings for 2025 by listed banks have been held intensively. It was noted that during multiple briefings, bank management teams were asked the same question: how are they addressing the potential migration of deposits?

With a significant volume of time deposits approaching maturity, banks are making every effort to retain funds and stabilize their deposit bases, signaling the start of a fierce battle to maintain deposit levels.

Eight banks have reported that time deposits constitute over 70% of their total deposits. So far, 22 A-share listed banks have disclosed their 2025 annual reports. Data indicates that all these banks achieved year-on-year growth in total deposits, with the industry's overall scale expanding steadily.

In 2025, the combined deposit balance (including accrued interest) of these 22 banks reached 200.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.32 trillion yuan from the previous year, representing a growth rate of 7.12%.

Major state-owned banks continue to anchor the deposit market. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Construction Bank all saw their deposit balances exceed 30 trillion yuan, reaching 37.31 trillion, 32.65 trillion, and 30.84 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 7.10%, 7.74%, and 7.39%. Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and Bank of Communications reported deposit balances of 26.18 trillion, 16.54 trillion, and 9.31 trillion yuan respectively.

Five banks experienced double-digit growth in total deposits, with city commercial banks and rural commercial banks performing particularly well. Among them, Bank of Chongqing led with a 19.32% increase, bringing its total deposits to 565.704 billion yuan. Qingdao Bank followed closely with a 15.49% growth, reaching 512.121 billion yuan. Zhengzhou Bank, Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank, and Huaxia Bank saw their deposits grow by 14.97%, 10.47%, and 10.32% respectively.

In contrast, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, and China Minsheng Bank recorded more moderate deposit growth rates of 1.65%, 1.15%, and 0.35% respectively.

Regarding deposit structure, the trend towards fixed-term deposits remains dominant across the industry. Among the 22 banks, only China Minsheng Bank reported a slight decrease of 0.09% in time deposits, while the other 21 saw increases. Zhengzhou Bank recorded the highest growth in time deposits at 27.98%, followed by Qingdao Bank, Bank of Chongqing, and Ruifeng Bank with increases of 19.25%, 18.94%, and 18.75% respectively.

Furthermore, the proportion of time deposits generally rose. Seventeen of the 22 banks reported an increase in this ratio compared to 2024, while only China Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Bank of Chongqing, and Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank experienced declines. Eight banks have time deposit ratios exceeding 70%, with Bank of Chongqing and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading at 75.27% and 74.27% respectively.

Banks have responded to queries about the scale of maturing time deposits. As we move into 2026, market attention on the maturity and repricing of bank time deposits continues to intensify. Estimates from various institutions regarding the volume of time deposits maturing this year vary, but synthesizing data from multiple securities firms suggests the entire industry could see between 50 trillion and 70 trillion yuan in time deposits maturing centrally. These funds may be reallocated across channels such as bank deposits, wealth management products, funds, and participating insurance.

During the results briefings, questions about the specific volume of maturing time deposits and the potential for deposit migration were frequently raised. Executives from several banks acknowledged that the maturity scale is larger than in previous years but remains within a normal range.

Tang Shuo, Vice President of China Construction Bank, stated that the bank's savings deposits have grown rapidly in recent years, with the total now exceeding 18 trillion yuan and time deposits nearing 12 trillion yuan. The scale of maturing time deposits has correspondingly increased, but the current retention rate is satisfactory.

Yang Jun, Vice President of Bank of China, mentioned that since the second half of 2025, the volume of maturing time deposits at Bank of China has indeed increased. The bank is actively working to retain these maturing deposits, and results show that most are still kept as deposits, with a high rollover rate for time deposits. This pattern is expected to continue for deposits maturing this year.

Peng Jiawen, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Board Secretary of China Merchants Bank, commented that the volume of maturing time deposits at their bank is slightly higher than in previous years but does not represent an abnormal figure and remains within a normal range.

Zhou Wanfu, Vice President of Bank of Communications, revealed that at their bank, the amount of time deposits maturing in 2026 has grown significantly compared to last year, with a substantial portion concentrated in the first quarter.

For banks, the concentrated maturity of high-interest deposits, while posing a risk of outflows, also presents an opportunity to reduce cost pressures.

In recent years, the heavy shift towards time deposits has kept banks' liability costs high, putting continuous pressure on net interest margins. Data from the National Financial Regulatory Administration shows that the net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.42% in 2025, below the international alert level of 1.8%. The repricing of these high-interest deposits upon maturity in 2026 is expected to alleviate this situation.

Zhou Wanfu pointed out that in the past two years, the banking industry generally faced a situation where deposit repricing lagged behind loan repricing, leading to a rapid decline in NIM. However, following the reduction in deposit benchmark rates last year and the repricing of a large volume of maturing time deposits over the past two years, the interest expense on deposits is expected to decrease significantly.

Yang Jun also noted that as current deposit rates are lower than those from three years ago, this repricing will lead to a decline in the deposit cost ratio, positively impacting the stabilization of interest margins.

Where are the deposits moving? Faced with the need to reallocate maturing deposits, banks are not opting to blindly raise interest rates to compete for funds. Several banks have clearly stated they will rely on comprehensive services like wealth management and asset allocation to keep funds circulating within their systems.

Peng Jiawen views so-called "deposit migration" as the issue of outflowing time deposits maturing within the year. From the customer's perspective, if deposits flow into wealth management products or public funds, China Merchants Bank aims to use its services to retain these funds within its ecosystem. Even if they are not on the bank's balance sheet, they remain client assets of the bank.

Peng further analyzed that from a fund flow perspective, another possibility is that deposits move into the capital market, becoming third-party deposits held at exchanges, which are accounted for as interbank demand deposits by banks. "Even if deposits outflow, if we can, through our customer service, channel the funds back to China Merchants Bank via interbank channels, it's a case of deposit outflow but not a loss of funds," Peng stated.

Regarding the deposit migration phenomenon, Wang Jun, Assistant President of Ping An Bank, observed that against the backdrop of declining deposit rates and improvements in the capital market and investment sentiment, the risk appetite of individual or retail bank customers is changing. While maintaining an overall conservative stance, the proportion allocated to relatively aggressive, equity-based products has noticeably increased. Simultaneously, demand for diversified product portfolio allocation solutions has grown stronger.

Wang Jun indicated that in response to this market shift, Ping An Bank is firstly adjusting its asset and deposit structure in line with market trends, and secondly, tailoring products and allocation services to meet customer needs effectively.

"In terms of results, some deposits are not necessarily lost; they are being transformed into more effective asset structures within our bank's allocation framework," Wang said. For changes expected in 2026, Ping An Bank plans to effectively manage the rollover of long-term deposits without simply resorting to high-priced renewals. Instead, it will leverage integrated online and offline asset allocation services to match its wealth management product portfolio with customer needs. Secondly, it will continuously enhance the development of high-quality deposits through scenario building.

Tang Shuo analyzed that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the allocation structure of household financial assets changed, with funds flowing into new formats like funds, a trend expected to continue into the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Going forward, China Construction Bank will continue to enrich its wealth management offerings and provide differentiated solutions tailored to various customer preferences.