Abstract

StoneCo will report quarterly results on March 02, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates last quarter’s performance and this quarter’s revenue, profit margin, and adjusted EPS expectations alongside recent institutional commentary.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to total revenue of $3.78 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 5.21%, with EBIT of $2.05 billion and adjusted EPS of 2.63, and a modest year-over-year acceleration embedded in earnings. Margin guidance is not explicitly disclosed, but prior-quarter gross profit margin and net profit margin provide a reference point for investors. StoneCo’s main business is expected to deliver steady top-line momentum, with payments and financial income remaining the largest contributors and a benign credit environment supporting profitability. The most promising segment is financial income, which continues to account for the majority of revenue and is positioned for healthy YoY growth as funding spreads and float balances remain supportive.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, StoneCo delivered revenue of $3.57 billion (up 6.24% YoY), a gross profit margin of 75.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.71 billion, a net profit margin of 20.82%, and adjusted EPS of 2.57 (up 33.16% YoY). Net profit grew quarter-on-quarter by 18.54%, underpinned by robust operating leverage and disciplined cost control. By business line, financial income contributed $2.54 billion, transaction activities and other services $0.63 billion, subscription services and equipment rentals $0.22 billion, and other financial income $0.17 billion, with financial income driving the bulk of the incremental revenue.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main payments and financial income businesses

Revenue for the quarter is projected at $3.78 billion, implying a 5.21% year-over-year increase, as throughput volume growth and higher float-related yields continue to support the financial income line. The previous quarter’s 75.91% gross margin and 20.82% net margin offer a baseline; if funding costs remain contained and mix stays favorable, margins could hold near recent levels. Adjusted EPS is forecast at 2.63, implying ongoing operating leverage, helped by scale benefits in core acquiring and platform services.

Transaction activities and other services remain an important cross-sell vector, and trends will depend on merchant additions and ticket-size growth. The sustainability of take rates and the stability of delinquency dynamics in embedded credit will be a swing factor for unit economics. Should card spending trends soften, revenue growth may lean more on financial income rather than transaction fees, altering the margin profile.

Most promising growth engine: financial income

Financial income is expected to continue leading segment contribution after generating $2.54 billion last quarter. With market rates stabilizing and float balances supported by broadening merchant adoption, this line benefits from both volume and yield, supporting mid-single-digit revenue growth for the group. The interplay between funding spreads and credit performance will be crucial; a favorable spread environment typically translates into high flow-through to EBIT.

If merchant funding demand remains resilient and cost of funds declines modestly, incremental margins on financial income could outpace company averages. Conversely, if spreads compress, management will likely lean on pricing discipline and operating efficiency to protect profitability. Investors should also watch duration positioning of the float and any changes in reinvestment yields that could influence near-term run-rate earnings.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

- Margins relative to last quarter’s 75.91% gross margin and 20.82% net margin will be a focal point, particularly how funding costs and transaction take rates evolve. Small changes in spreads can materially alter bottom-line conversion given the weight of financial income. - Volume and mix in transaction activities will indicate the health of the merchant base and consumption trends; divergent paths between SMB and mid-market cohorts could affect blended take rates and churn. - The EPS delivery vs. the 2.63 forecast will anchor sentiment. A beat sustained by recurring drivers like operating discipline and stable funding costs could reinforce confidence in the earnings trajectory, while a miss driven by spread compression or weaker throughput would likely pressure the shares.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary over the past six months skews constructive, with a majority leaning bullish. Notably, Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating with a favorable stance on the earnings setup, citing supportive fundamentals and valuation. The bullish camp emphasizes continued operating leverage, resilient funding spreads supporting financial income, and disciplined cost execution underpinning forecast EPS of 2.63 and EBIT of $2.05 billion. This perspective argues that the current quarter’s mid-single-digit revenue growth should still translate into healthy margin preservation, keeping the earnings trajectory intact.

On balance, bullish views dominate over bearish takes, and the positive arguments center on three factors: steady revenue growth near 5.21% YoY, solid profitability supported by spreads and float optimization, and cost control. These institutions expect StoneCo to deliver in line to slightly ahead of forecasts, with upside risk if transaction activity re-accelerates among key merchant cohorts.