The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transportation, recently reopened briefly before closing again. Analysts suggest that, with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is just one of several obstacles hindering the recovery of international crude oil supply. Returning to pre-war levels will require overcoming multiple hurdles, a process expected to take months or even years.

The Strait of Hormuz is the only maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. More than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and approximately one-fifth of worldwide liquefied natural gas shipments pass through this strait.

According to analysts cited in a Reuters report on the 20th, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the first vessels to transport oil would be the tankers currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, believed to be carrying around 170 million barrels of crude. On the other side of the strait, hundreds of empty ships that have been waiting would gradually enter the Persian Gulf to dock at export terminals such as Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura port. These vessels would initially help relieve storage facilities that have reached their capacity limits due to shipping disruptions. The International Energy Agency estimates that storage facilities in the Persian Gulf region now hold over 260 million barrels. This storage pressure has severely hampered production capacity in regional countries.

Subsequent oil shipments will take considerably longer to complete. For instance, a round trip from the Middle East to India's west coast takes about 20 days, with journeys to destinations like Japan and South Korea taking even longer. Furthermore, due to the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz, many tankers are already committed to contracts transporting oil from the Americas, with some voyages lasting up to 40 days. These factors are expected to contribute to a shortage of available tankers.

Restoring production capacity at regional oil fields will require extensive coordination, including the return of thousands of technical workers who evacuated due to the conflict and the repair of damaged infrastructure. The International Energy Agency estimates that, under safe and smooth external conditions, approximately half of the oil and gas fields in the Persian Gulf region could restore production to pre-war levels within two weeks. About 30% could achieve this within six weeks, while the remaining 20% face significant challenges; they may require months or longer to recover, or may never return to previous output levels. Losses in production could be offset by drilling new wells, but this also demands considerable time.

Analysts believe that, with the conflict ongoing and supply chain bottlenecks persisting, the recovery of the already severely impacted international crude oil supply will be slow and difficult.