During the current pricing cycle (from December 8, 2025, 24:00 to December 22, 2025, 24:00), international crude oil prices initially declined before stabilizing. As a result, the domestic crude oil change rate started negative and further deepened, with a projected reduction of 165 yuan per ton by the ninth working day. The retail fuel price adjustment next Monday at 24:00 is expected to conclude with a decrease.
Market analysts note that this pricing cycle saw weak oil prices due to eased tensions in Europe and fundamental supply-demand imbalances. Later, disruptions in South American oil exports shifted market focus to geopolitical risks in the region. Overall, international oil prices stabilized after a decline and rebounded slightly, while the crude oil change rate remained in negative territory.
As of December 18, the ninth working day, the domestic crude oil change rate stood at -3.86%, indicating a projected reduction of 165 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel. This translates to a decrease of 0.13 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline, 0.14 yuan per liter for 95# gasoline, and 0.14 yuan per liter for 0# diesel.
Consumers will benefit from lower fuel costs after the adjustment. For example, filling a 50-liter tank with 92# gasoline will cost about 6.5 yuan less. A small passenger car traveling 2,000 km per month with an 8L/100km fuel consumption will save around 10 yuan in fuel expenses over the next half-month until the next adjustment window on January 6, 2026, at 24:00. For logistics, a heavy truck covering 10,000 km monthly with 38L/100km fuel consumption will see fuel costs drop by approximately 266 yuan per vehicle before the next adjustment.
Analysts suggest that while geopolitical risks in Europe and South America may support a short-term rebound in oil prices, concerns over oversupply could limit upside potential. With only one working day remaining before the adjustment, the negative crude oil change rate is unlikely to reverse, making a retail fuel price cut highly probable next Monday at 24:00.