Dongfang Electric Surges Over 5% on Extended Gas Turbine Supply Shortage and Export Growth Potential

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Dongfang Electric (01072) rose more than 5%, with gains reaching 4.82% at the time of reporting to trade at HK$35.34, with a turnover of HK$355 million. According to a research report from Caitong Securities, overseas gas turbine manufacturers are maintaining restrained capacity expansion, indicating that the structural supply-demand gap will persist long-term. The report estimates that global gas turbine intent orders for 2025 have exceeded 80GW, while actual deliverable capacity is only around 50GW. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries forecasts that demand for GTCC combined cycle gas turbines could approach 100GW, highlighting significant supply-demand imbalance. The core reason is that leading manufacturers' expansion cycles (3-5 years) lag behind the surge in demand from AIDC and peak shaving applications. Among the three major manufacturers, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries all have full order books, with production schedules extending to 2029. Bank of America Securities previously stated that Dongfang Electric has potential room for expansion in gas turbine exports. The bank predicts that the company's net profit will achieve a compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the rising cycle of China's power sector capital expenditures. Additionally, the recognition of equipment order revenue alongside recovering average selling prices will drive steady growth in the company's net profit.

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