Shenwan Hongyuan's Chief A-Share Strategist Fu Jingtao stated at the 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum that the current A-share bull market has not concluded and still possesses considerable depth and potential for future progression. He emphasized that the historical context, industrial cycles, and capital environments of China today are fundamentally different from those of Japan in the 1990s, making simple comparisons inappropriate.

In his speech titled "The Two-Stage Bull Market Theory," Fu Jingtao addressed market discussions regarding the sustainability of the bull run. He noted that some perspectives, drawing from Japan's experience in the 1990s which featured "three waves of rises, each approximately 50%," suggest that if measured from the recent low of 2600 points on the Shanghai Composite Index, the market has already entered a relatively high zone. However, he clearly pointed out that fundamental differences exist between China's current situation and Japan's historical context, which form the basis for an optimistic outlook on the market's future.

He believes the differences are primarily manifested in three aspects. First, China has the capability to reshape the order in the Western Pacific, a circumstance markedly different from Japan's position at the time. Second, the nature of the technological cycles faced by the two countries is distinct. Japan's period of aging population coincided with the internet era, which centered on "connecting people with people." In contrast, China is currently entering the AI era, which signifies an "expansion of the scope of humanity and the labor force." The long-cycle expectations for national destiny and the characteristics of industrial trends have already diverged onto completely different paths for the two nations.

Third, there are differences in the sources of liquidity for the stock markets. Fu Jingtao indicated that the transmission mechanism of macro liquidity to the stock market is clearer in overseas capital markets, such as those in the United States and Japan. In China currently, the more significant influencing factors lie in the存量 adjustment of household asset allocation and large-scale flow migration. "Chinese households have money; the stock market is not short of funds," he specifically emphasized, noting that during phases where the stock market can attract funds away from the bond market, stock market liquidity is particularly abundant.

Based on the above analysis, Fu Jingtao concluded that at the present juncture, his primary assessment is that the A-share bull market has not ended and still possesses significant depth and room for future market development.