SpaceX closed at USD 152.71, down 1.36%.

Large options trades in SPCX leaned decisively bearish, featuring a $22.74 million net-credit synthetic put and a $1.22 million bear put spread. The synthetic put sold 15,000 Mar. 19, 2027 $160.00 calls and bought 15,000 Mar. 19, 2027 $110.00 puts, while the bear put spread bought 1,941 Oct. 16, 2026 $155.00 puts and sold 1,941 Oct. 16, 2026 $135.00 puts. The scale and structure of these combinations outweighed scattered smaller bullish trades, signaling strong institutional conviction for downside across 2026 and 2027 expirations.

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Options Indicators

SPCX is showing an implied volatility of 52.68%, and with an IV percentile of 69.19%, current option pricing sits near the upper end of its recent range but has not fully moved into clearly elevated territory. In practical terms, volatility is best viewed as neutral to slightly rich rather than outright cheap, and the IV/HV ratio of 1.28 suggests implied volatility is running above historical realized volatility, meaning the options market is embedding a modest premium over recent actual movement. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.77, but this headline volume reading is not a reliable bullish signal here because the most consequential trades were structured bearish combinations, especially the synthetic put that paired short calls with long puts to replicate short stock exposure.

Large Trades

A synthetic put position sized at $22.74 million net credit was the dominant large trade, built by selling 15,000 Mar. 19, 2027 $160.00 calls and buying 15,000 Mar. 19, 2027 $110.00 puts. With SPCX referenced at $152.71, the short call leg was out of the money and the long put leg was also out of the money. This structure expresses a distinctly bearish directional view, effectively replicating short stock exposure while bringing in premium upfront, and it suggests the trader expects meaningful downside over the longer-dated horizon rather than merely positioning for short-term volatility.

A bear put spread established for a $1.22 million net debit added a second clear bearish signal. The trade bought 1,941 Oct. 16, 2026 $155.00 puts and sold 1,941 Oct. 16, 2026 $135.00 puts, creating a defined-risk downside spread. At the reference price of $152.71, the long $155.00 put was in the money while the short $135.00 put was out of the money. Strategically, this is a directional bearish bet using a net-debit spread to target a decline into the lower strike area while reducing upfront premium versus a naked long put.

Overall, the large-trade flow points clearly bearish. The biggest positioning was a long-dated synthetic put opened for substantial premium intake, and the second-largest trade reinforced that view with a bear put spread, showing traders were not just hedging lightly but expressing structured downside expectations across 2026 and 2027 expirations. While there were some smaller bullish trades elsewhere in the tape, they were overshadowed by the scale and conviction of the bearish combinations, leaving the overall institutional sentiment decisively negative on SPCX.

Strategy Reference

For a lower assignment probability on the call side, sellers may consider out-of-the-money strikes near or above the $185.00 to $195.00 zone in shorter-dated expirations, though the elevated IV favors premium collection only if one is comfortable with the prevailing bearish flow; alternatively, a defined-risk put spread using an Oct. 16, 2026 $135.00/$110.00 structure limits margin exposure while still targeting further downside.