Commodities Wrap: Oil Slips on Saudi Supply and Strait Traffic Focus, Copper Gains, Gold Steadies

Deep News
2小时前

Crude oil declined as Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for Asian buyers, a sign that spot market supply is loosening as Middle East exports recover.

London copper rose alongside U.S. equities, with strength in technology shares outweighing concerns over surging bond yields and mounting European fiscal pressure.

Gold steadied on Monday, giving back earlier gains, as rising European political uncertainty boosted the dollar's appeal and traders weighed the interest rate outlook, with a stronger dollar pressuring bullion.

Crude Oil: WTI Falls as Market Focuses on Saudi Supply and Hormuz Strait Volumes

Crude declined after Saudi Arabia lowered its crude selling prices for Asian buyers, indicating that spot market supply is becoming more ample as Middle East exports recover. WTI futures fell 1.8% to settle near $89 a barrel, while Brent crude closed around $100 a barrel. As traders sought to avoid geopolitical volatility triggered by the Iran war, open interest in the front-month contracts of both benchmarks has trended lower in recent days, which has also amplified price swings.

Over the weekend, as Persian Gulf producers competed for market share amid rising crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude for November sales to Asia to a discount of $5 a barrel against the regional benchmark, a six-year low, compared with this month's discount of $2 a barrel. A Bloomberg survey showed traders and refiners had expected a $5 increase from October. Traders are also digesting a series of developments concerning the Strait of Hormuz, one of the biggest flashpoints in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Axios, citing three U.S. officials, reported that senior U.S. cabinet members met at Camp David last week to discuss next steps in the Iran war and the Yemen conflict. Iranian state media reported that the country's interior minister departed for Doha on Monday for talks.

Bullish risks remain. After weeks of escalating conflict between Iran-backed Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia that spilled over into Saudi energy infrastructure, Yemen's internationally recognized government launched a full-scale military operation to retake Houthi-held territory. Iran said the next "enemy mistake" against it would bring "new fronts and greater surprises." President Masoud Pezeshkian said negotiations with the United States are "meaningless." Investors also worry that Iran, increasingly embattled and reliant on oil revenue, which shipped no crude by tanker last month, may respond by escalating the conflict. "Given that a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the U.S. still looks unlikely, we continue to expect significant volatility in both crude and refined products markets," said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Monday at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that oil inventories used to buffer global supply shocks are "alarmingly low," and that the market risks further deterioration unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He said that "while crude supply tightness is already severe, refined product price increases have been even more dramatic." November WTI futures fell 1.8% to settle at $89.43 a barrel, while December Brent futures fell 1.9% to settle at $100.32 a barrel.

Copper Rises as Tech Strength Offsets Surging Bond Yields

London copper rose alongside U.S. equities, with strength in technology shares outweighing concerns over surging bond yields and mounting European fiscal pressure. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper rose as much as 1.3%, extending gains since Friday, when a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report cooled expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. However, bond yields resumed their climb on Monday, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to its highest since 2002. European political turmoil and fiscal concerns also bolstered the dollar's safe-haven appeal, potentially posing a headwind for metals. Higher financing costs could weigh on commodities by dampening investment and consumer demand, while a stronger dollar raises the cost for buyers using other currencies to purchase metals. Still, an artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom that has pushed technology shares toward record highs also lent support to copper prices. Massive spending on data centers and power infrastructure is reinforcing expectations for copper demand, while supply growth remains weak due to mine setbacks and disruptions. LME copper rose 1.1% to $14,420 a ton; LME aluminum rose 0.9% to $3,127 a ton; LME nickel rose 0.6% to $15,714 a ton; LME zinc rose 0.9% to $3,743.50 a ton; LME tin rose 0.6% to $54,314 a ton; LME lead rose 1.3% to $1,875.50 a ton.

Gold Gives Back Earlier Gains as European Political Uncertainty Lifts Dollar

Gold steadied on Monday, giving back earlier gains, as rising European political uncertainty boosted the dollar's appeal and traders weighed the interest rate outlook, with a stronger dollar pressuring bullion. Spot gold traded around $4,140 an ounce. Policy gridlock in France triggered a selloff in the bonds of Europe's more fragile issuers. As the euro weakened, the dollar approached its year-to-date high, and traders are closely watching European bond markets for signs of contagion. A stronger dollar typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities such as gold. As of 4:29 p.m. New York time, spot gold was little changed at $4,141.27 an ounce, after rising as much as 0.7% earlier; silver rose 1.2% to $61.08 an ounce; platinum and palladium also advanced; the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.1%, having gained as much as 0.4% intraday.

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