According to data, in August 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), representing a slight 1% decline compared to July 2025, but a significant 35% increase compared to 62,500 units in the same period last year. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase for the heavy truck market since April this year.

From January to August 2025, China's heavy truck market achieved cumulative sales approaching 710,000 units. In the remaining four months, if heavy trucks maintain average monthly sales exceeding 73,000 units, full-year sales will surpass 1 million units. Based on current market conditions and terminal demand, this expectation is likely to be met, meaning the heavy truck market will finally return to the million-unit new vehicle sales scale after a three-year hiatus.

**August Heavy Truck Sales of 84,000 Units Makes Annual Million-Unit Target a Certainty**

The single-month figure of 84,000 units represents the second-highest level in the past eight years, only below the 130,000 units recorded in August 2020, and higher than August sales in all other years, demonstrating substantial market strength and slightly exceeding expectations.

Cumulatively, from January to August this year, China's heavy truck market achieved sales of approximately 708,000 units, representing a 13% year-over-year increase, making annual sales exceeding 1 million units virtually certain.

The over 30% year-over-year growth in August wholesale heavy truck sales is not built on shaky foundations, but rather supported by robust domestic terminal sales. In August this year, domestic terminal heavy truck sales are expected to surge nearly 50% year-over-year, with growth accelerating from 39% in July.

The significant year-over-year increase in terminal sales stems from two factors: first, the low base from the same period last year, and second, undoubtedly policy support. By the end of May, almost all provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions had implemented detailed truck trade-in policies. Therefore, from mid-to-late May through August, this policy maintained relatively stable promotional effects on the new heavy truck market, driving the heavy truck industry's sustained rapid year-over-year growth for five consecutive months.

Additionally, exports continued to maintain steady growth. In August this year, China's heavy truck export wholesale sales are expected to grow approximately 10% year-over-year, with performance in this segment also exceeding expectations.

**Natural Gas Heavy Trucks Finally Welcome Recovery! Electric Heavy Trucks Continue "Surging Forward"**

In August, both heavy truck wholesale sales and domestic terminal sales achieved double growth, with the most noteworthy being natural gas trucks and electric trucks both achieving year-over-year increases. Particularly for natural gas trucks, they finally reversed the declining trend with obvious recovery momentum.

Based on observations, domestic terminal sales in August this year showed relatively rapid year-over-year growth overall, with growth rates approaching 50%, while month-over-month declines were modest at only 6-7%. Among these, electric heavy trucks continued their strong performance with explosive year-over-year growth; diesel heavy truck growth rates slowed; and natural gas heavy trucks finally saw "light at the end of the tunnel," welcoming recovery after five consecutive months of year-over-year decline, with relatively high year-over-year growth rates.

Looking at natural gas heavy trucks first: In August, terminal demand for natural gas vehicles showed obvious warming, not only achieving over 15% month-over-month growth, but also surging over 30% compared to the same period last year! Domestic penetration rates are expected to recover from less than 22% in July to approximately 26-27% in August.

After five consecutive monthly declines, natural gas trucks returned to the growth track. The reasons include low base effects from the same period last year, and stable LNG prices remaining at the low level of 4.3-4.8 yuan/kg, maintaining stable oil-gas price differentials. Additionally, the implementation of trade-in policies in northern regions (where natural gas heavy trucks are primarily sold) drove continuous improvement in natural gas heavy truck demand, ultimately creating a "qualitative change" in August.

Looking at electric heavy trucks: From the beginning of this year to now, new energy heavy trucks have continued strong sales in the short-to-medium distance freight market, combined with demand for replacing old trucks with electric trucks under the trade-in policy. August new energy heavy truck terminal sales are expected to exceed 16,000 units, representing over 160% year-over-year growth (remaining roughly flat month-over-month), creating a new high for August sales in this segment. Monthly industry penetration rates may exceed 27%, setting a new monthly high for heavy truck electrification penetration.

Furthermore, domestic diesel heavy truck terminal sales in August are expected to grow over 25% year-over-year, but showed relatively significant month-over-month decline, with expected month-over-month decreases around 20%.

Overall, there exists a certain trade-off relationship between diesel and natural gas trucks, particularly evident in the tractor segment.