Market data from yesterday's close showed the TTF October contract settling at 79.385 euros per megawatt-hour, representing a 4.19% gain, while the JKM spot price climbed 6.06% to 28.505 dollars per million British thermal units. In contrast, the NYMEX October HH futures contract declined 3.34% to 2.808 dollars per million British thermal units.
According to a Telegram post on September 9 from Yamal-Nenets Governor Dmitry Artyukhov, a processing facility owned by Gazprom in Novy Urengoy was targeted by a drone strike that same day. The facility is positioned roughly 600 kilometers south of the Yamal LNG and Arctic-2 LNG liquefaction plants on the Yamal Peninsula. The governor noted that the drone attack on the industrial site was repelled, but a fire ignited due to falling drone debris, with emergency crews currently managing the scene.
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported on September 9 that LNG inventories held by major power utilities climbed 2.5% year-on-year to 2.43 million metric tons as of September 6, reaching the highest level in seven weeks. The ministry also revised the August 30 inventory figure downward to 2.37 million tons from the previously stated 2.42 million tons. That level was substantially higher than the 2.01 million tons recorded at the end of August 2025 and the five-year average of 2.12 million tons for late August. For context, LNG stocks at the end of September are projected at 1.65 million tons, against a five-year average of 2.05 million tons for that period.
Meanwhile, Tarikul Islam Khan, spokesperson for Petrobangla, told S&P Global Commodity Insights on September 9 that Summit LNG Terminal II Co Ltd has requested both Petrobangla and the government to reconsider terminating its second floating storage and regasification unit agreement, citing potential savings of 1.1 billion dollars and significant energy security benefits.
Where the Market Stands Now
In the Asian and European markets, the combination of tanker attacks and lingering Middle East tensions continues to elevate risk premiums. Yesterday's strike on a gas facility in Russia's Yamal region, though with no confirmed impact yet on export terminals there, pushed prices to an intraday high above 80 euros. While some participants remain cautious about potential policy shifts, the reality of low storage levels provides sufficient support for prices to maintain a firm, oscillating upward trend in the current environment.
In the United States, recent high temperatures have eased somewhat, leading to reduced gas demand for power generation and softer prices. However, the pace of inventory drawdowns in early September remains healthy, keeping prices in a higher range as the front-month contract tests resistance around the 3-dollar mark.
Strategy Considerations
With no meaningful resolution yet to Europe's refilling challenges, existing long positions in TTF contracts remain advisable, and given the rising risk profile, exploring call option entry points becomes increasingly attractive. Asian buyers are showing less urgency compared to their European counterparts, so watch for the JKM-TTF spread to narrow following the current restocking phase.
Potential Risks to Watch
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected autumn restocking demand in Asia and any Middle East conflict escalation that disrupts production or export facilities. On the downside, a rapid de-escalation of Middle East tensions or a weak macroeconomic environment that dampens demand could pressure prices lower.
This report is based on publicly available information believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made regarding its accuracy or completeness. The views, conclusions, and forecasts herein reflect judgments made only as of the publication date and may change without notice. This document is for reference purposes only and should not replace independent decision-making. Investors rely on this report at their own risk, and the publisher and author assume no liability for any consequences arising from its use. The copyright of this report belongs solely to the publisher. Reproduction, citation, or redistribution without prior written consent is prohibited. Authorized citations must credit the source as the research institute and must not alter the original meaning. All trademarks and service marks used herein are property of their respective owners. All rights reserved.