According to reports, the first batch of SpaceX (SPCX.US) lockup shares, worth approximately $100 billion, officially became unrestricted on Thursday. However, the market reaction was relatively calm as investors digested the impact of the significant increase in tradable shares while also looking ahead to even larger future unlock tranches. During Thursday's early trading session, SpaceX shares fluctuated narrowly between gains and losses, with an intraday range of less than 3%. Trading volume in the first 30 minutes after the market opened was about 93 million shares, representing roughly 40% of the prior day's total volume.

The relatively stable price action comes during a sensitive period following SpaceX's first post-IPO earnings report. The stock had previously plunged 14% in a single day after the report, as the company's AI-related capital expenditure came in higher than market expectations. Nevertheless, most Wall Street analysts maintain an optimistic outlook on the company's long-term prospects.

Under the IPO arrangement, up to 911.5 million shares were unlocked this time, valued at approximately $100 billion at the current share price. This increases the number of shares available for trading from about 639 million at the time of the initial listing to roughly 1.55 billion. However, this is only the first step in SpaceX's unique nine-stage lockup expiry mechanism. Bernstein previously noted that, unlike the traditional 180-day single unlock after an IPO, SpaceX has adopted an "extremely complex" nine-stage phased unlock schedule, with the largest tranche still to come. According to the prospectus, in June 2027, the approximately 6.4 billion Class A common shares held by Elon Musk will be unlocked, further significantly expanding the market's float.

For investors who bought SpaceX shares at or after the IPO, the stock could continue to face persistent supply pressure as more restricted shares enter the market over time. The large-scale unlock has also continued to attract short-seller attention. According to data from S3 Partners, as of Wednesday's close, approximately 36% of SpaceX's outstanding shares had been sold short, reflecting persistently high bearish sentiment across the market. With the stock price having fallen significantly from its highs, short sellers are now sitting on paper gains exceeding $9 billion. However, market observers believe that not all short sellers are simply betting on deteriorating fundamentals. A considerable portion of the trading strategies are specifically targeting the potential selling pressure following the lockup expiry, aiming to profit from a large number of early investors and employees cashing out their holdings.

Over the past few weeks, Wall Street investment banks and major trading institutions have been preparing in advance for the potential market impact of this large-scale unlock. As restricted shares gradually enter the market, the most pressing question for investors is not whether a sell-off will occur, but who will become the new buyers. Some investors previously held indirect stakes in SpaceX and xAI (now renamed SpaceXAI) through special purpose vehicles (SPVs). With the completion of the first unlock, these investors are expected to receive their allocated shares from SPV managers over the coming days to weeks. Meanwhile, retail investors are actively buying the dip. According to Vanda Research data, following the sharp post-earnings drop on Wednesday, U.S. retail investors net purchased approximately $22.7 million worth of SpaceX stock in the first hour of trading alone, indicating that some investors view the price adjustment as a new allocation opportunity.

Analysts suggest that with the first major unlock failing to trigger significant selling pressure, the market's future direction will depend more on whether new capital can continue to absorb the unlocked shares, and on the impact of the upcoming, even larger tranches of restricted stock on the supply-demand balance.