During Tuesday's Asian trading session, spot gold was quoted at 957.65 yuan per gram, down 20.19 yuan or 2.07% from the previous session, showing a pullback from recent highs. The day's opening price was 978.15 yuan per gram, with an intraday high of 985.80 yuan and a low of 954.84 yuan.
A recent research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that although gold prices have risen significantly, the sustained impact of global central bank gold purchases on prices should not be overestimated. The report indicates that the current rally is more influenced by a global trend toward "de-financialization," with physical assets being revalued and gold's investment appeal strengthening. By 2025, gold's share as an investment asset is expected to reach 44%. However, traditional pricing models are becoming less effective, as gold prices increasingly diverge from movements in real interest rates and the U.S. dollar index.
In terms of central bank buying patterns, emerging markets and developing economies—particularly those with non-floating exchange rate regimes—are the main drivers of increased gold reserves. Developed economies, with their flexible exchange rate mechanisms and stable reserves, show limited appetite for gold purchases, with some even reducing their holdings slightly. Data shows that while the correlation between central bank gold buying and gold prices has improved in recent years, the pace of accumulation has slowed or even turned negative, indicating a diminishing marginal impact on price support.
Moreover, gold is characterized by high volatility and strong liquidity, serving primarily to diversify portfolio risk rather than provide stable appreciation. Scenario analysis suggests that even if multiple countries significantly increase their gold reserve ratios, upside for gold prices remains constrained by multiple variables, with real-world conditions being far more complex than models imply. CICC advises investors to rationally assess the logic behind central bank gold purchases, noting that short-term price fluctuations are more affected by shifts in trading themes and macroeconomic expectations, and cautioning against overreliance on any single supporting factor.
In the latest spot gold market analysis, after encountering resistance near 4,536 yuan yesterday, gold experienced a震荡 decline, falling sharply to around 4,100 yuan. However, supported by solid buying interest at lower levels, prices staged a strong rebound, closing the day with a bearish candlestick featuring a long lower shadow. Based on this price action, the current correction phase is likely nearing its end, and a range-trading approach is recommended to capture market rhythms.
On the support side, the early session low near 4,360 yuan serves as a key defensive level. As long as this level holds, it presents an opportunity for long positions. On the resistance front, 4,490 yuan is a strong barrier, with additional pressure near yesterday's high of 4,536 yuan. If prices fail to break above these resistance zones, short positions with tight stop-losses may be maintained. A successful breakout above these levels could pave the way for further gains toward 4,600 yuan, and potentially 4,750 yuan.
Should prices unexpectedly fall below 4,360 yuan, a further decline toward 4,300 yuan or even 4,260 yuan is anticipated. At those levels, long positions could be reconsidered.