Regency Centers Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Strong NOI Growth and Strategic Acquisitions

Earnings Call
07/31

[Management View]
Regency Centers reported strong same-property NOI growth exceeding 7%, driven by robust leasing activity, record low shop move-outs, and favorable bankruptcy outcomes. The company emphasized the strategic significance of the Orange County portfolio acquisition, which enhances earnings and leverages UPREIT structuring for competitive advantage.

[Outlook]
Regency Centers raised its full-year same-property NOI growth forecast to 4.5%-5% and increased NAREIT FFO per share by $0.06. The company plans to continue focusing on ground-up developments and expects to start at least $250 million in new projects annually.

[Financial Performance]
The company achieved 10% cash rent spreads and nearly 20% GAAP rent spreads on new and renewal leases. Over $600 million was deployed year-to-date, including the acquisition of a five-property portfolio in Orange County for $357 million.

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: How are you thinking about the contribution from various components into the second half for same-store NOI cadence?
Answer: Base rent will continue to be the largest contributor. Credit loss elements are expected to be higher in the back half of the year due to known bankruptcies. Uncollectible lease income is planned to be slightly higher than the first half but still below historic levels.

Question 2: Can you talk about the shift away from occupancy into other components of the same property NOI growth algorithm?
Answer: Continued runway on commenced occupancy is expected. Redevelopments are anticipated to be positive for same property NOI growth, contributing well over 100 basis points in 2025 and potentially replicating in 2026.

Question 3: Who were you competing with for the SoCal acquisition, and what gave you the competitive edge?
Answer: The acquisition was off-market, and the seller chose Regency for the quality of its currency, operations, and future development partnership opportunities.

Question 4: Could you expound on the development opportunities and incremental discussions with national retailers?
Answer: Regency continues to see demand from best-in-class grocers and expects to start $250 million or more in ground-up developments annually, maintaining yields around 7%.

Question 5: How sustainable are the better expense recovery rates seen in the quarter?
Answer: Recovery rates are expected to decelerate slightly due to one-time elements in Q2, but higher average commenced occupancy will continue to drive fundamental increases.

Question 6: Do you have any rights to participate in future developments or acquisitions within the SoCal master plan community?
Answer: Regency owns all existing retail assets in the community and anticipates future partnership opportunities for additional phases.

Question 7: What are your thoughts on the $100 million remaining forwards and potential acquisitions?
Answer: The capital provides added capacity for development, redevelopment, and potential acquisitions, including smaller joint ventures.

Question 8: How do you view portfolio cap rates for single asset transactions and the SoCal acquisition?
Answer: Demand for grocery-anchored assets remains strong, with cap rates in the low sixes. Regency remains competitive and ready to acquire assets that meet growth objectives.

Question 9: Can you talk about tenant health on the small shop side and their ability to handle tariffs?
Answer: Tenant health is strong, with high retention rates and positive feedback. Tenants are agile and capable of managing costs and negotiating with suppliers.

Question 10: Any indications of potentially troubled tenants for 2026?
Answer: The outlook for credit loss has improved due to clarity on bankruptcy outcomes. Tenant health remains strong, with historically low accounts receivable over 90 days.

Question 11: Were the earlier commitments of tenants primarily junior anchors?
Answer: Yes, the earlier commencement of rent was due to accelerated openings of anchor tenants, facilitated by efficient processes and partnerships.

Question 12: How much can you stretch occupancy costs in better quality assets?
Answer: Limited supply allows for higher occupancy costs, with tenants continuing to invest in their businesses to afford these costs.

Question 13: What is the expected mix of ground-up and redevelopment investments over the next three to five years?
Answer: The majority of investments are expected to come from ground-up developments, given the success in sourcing these opportunities.

Question 14: Has your thinking changed on peak occupancy levels?
Answer: Regency believes it can continue to push higher occupancy levels, surpassing prior peaks, while maintaining strategic vacancy for redevelopment.

Question 15: How do you balance taking the good with the bad in portfolio transactions?
Answer: Regency evaluates transactions based on their accretiveness to earnings, growth, and portfolio quality, ensuring they meet strategic objectives.

Question 16: Do you have strategic plans to increase or reduce exposure to other US markets?
Answer: Regency is comfortable with its portfolio diversification and will continue to invest incrementally in markets that meet its criteria.

Question 17: Can you discuss the disposition guidance and the assets included?
Answer: The $75 million sales guidance includes a grocery-anchored center with lower growth potential and smaller nonstrategic assets.

Question 18: Is the acquisition environment expected to pick up in the next couple of years?
Answer: There is a marginal pickup in block opportunities, and Regency remains ready to acquire assets that meet its growth objectives.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts were positive about Regency's strong performance and strategic acquisitions. Management's tone was confident, emphasizing the company's competitive advantages and growth potential.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|-------------------------------|---------|---------|
| Same-property NOI Growth | >7% | 6.5% |
| Cash Rent Spreads | 10% | 9% |
| GAAP Rent Spreads | 20% | 18% |
| Capital Deployed | $600M | $300M |
| Development Pipeline | $500M | $450M |
| Bonds Issued | $400M | $0 |

[Risks and Concerns]
- Potential increase in credit loss elements in the second half of the year.
- Uncertainty in the broader economic environment and its impact on tenant health.
- Challenges in sourcing new development opportunities.

[Final Takeaway]
Regency Centers delivered strong Q2 2025 results, driven by robust leasing activity and strategic acquisitions. The company raised its full-year guidance and remains focused on ground-up developments and redevelopment opportunities. Management's confidence in the company's growth potential and competitive advantages was evident throughout the call. Investors should remain optimistic about Regency's ability to sustain its performance and capitalize on future opportunities.

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