On December 12, JOINN's Hong Kong shares opened higher and extended gains intraday, peaking at a 21.22% surge to HK$21.54—reclaiming the HK$20 level after a month. Following a four-month downtrend, the stock’s dramatic "20% red candle" has refocused market attention on this non-clinical safety evaluation leader and the recent spike in monkey prices.
**Southbound Capital Emerges as Key Driver** In July, JOINN hit HK$28.70 amid a broader biotech rally, marking its highest level since March 2023. However, the climb was volatile: after a sharp pullback on June 17 (forming a long upper shadow), the stock plunged 28.73% by June 20 to HK$13.89. It rebounded swiftly, recovering most losses within seven sessions as the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose 9.45% from its June low.
Technically, JOINN’s post-peak correction saw it oscillate around the BOLL mid-band before testing the lower band on August 28. The 60-day moving average (MA), untouched since June, was breached on October 4, triggering a prolonged downtrend with all MAs diverging downward—a classic bearish reversal pattern.
The slide paused on December 5 with a "three-small-positive-candles" pattern, coinciding with heavy accumulation by southbound investors. Over 60 days, top sellers included HSBC, Merrill Lynch, and Citigroup, while China Investment (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect) and China Creation (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect) led buying, scooping up 10.13 million and 6.89 million shares, respectively. Their combined holdings now stand at 34.15% and 22.86%.
Notably, average holding costs dropped from HK$23.30 in early October to HK$19.44 by December 11, with the cost concentration near HK$17.63. The December 12 surge to HK$21.25 lifted the profit ratio from 32.02% to 78.84%, rewarding southbound investors’ "buy-the-dip" strategy.
**Fundamentals: Recovery Signs vs. Monkey Cycle** Post-2023’s biotech funding winter, the CRO sector has shown resilience. Global R&D spending hit $260.5 billion in 2023, buoyed by MNCs tackling patent cliffs, while China’s regulatory shift toward "genuine innovation" and faster approvals benefits high-standard CROs like JOINN.
However, JOINN’s Q3 revenue fell 26.23% YoY to RMB985 million, extending a downtrend since 2023. The 2023 "monkey price shock" (a RMB267 million fair-value loss on biological assets) and 2024’s order contraction drove a double-dip in revenue and profit.
Order trends—a reliable leading indicator—suggest stabilization: new orders rose 17.1% YoY to RMB1.64 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with Q3 up 24%. Yet, the real catalyst may be the monkey cycle. JOINN’s 2020 switch to fair-value accounting for lab monkeys means price swings directly impact profits.
Recent data shows crab-eating macaques (aged 3–5 years) now cost RMB140,000 each—50% above JOINN’s 2022 acquisition cost of RMB90,000. With annual supply (49,000–52,400) lagging demand (51,300–62,600), the widening gap could propel prices further, potentially fueling JOINN’s H2 2025–2026 earnings.