Fertilizer stocks performed strongly today. As of press time, CHINA XLX FERT (01866) rose 4.55% to HK$8.74, SINOFERT (00297) gained 4.58% to HK$1.6, and CHINA BLUECHEM (03983) climbed 4.53% to HK$2.54.

The positive sentiment follows China's potassium fertilizer import negotiation team reaching an agreement with major international suppliers on November 23. The 2026 potassium fertilizer import contract price was set at $348 per ton (CFR), up $2 from 2025, maintaining China's position as a global "price lowland" for potassium fertilizer and ensuring stable domestic supply and pricing.

Nanhua Futures noted that urea production is expected to remain high in November, supported by government supply guarantees and improved production margins. However, high supply continues to pressure prices. Export policy adjustments have alleviated fundamental pressures, weakening downside momentum. With export controls in place, short-term spot prices have found support, boosting industry sentiment and keeping domestic urea prices firm.

Additionally, rising coal prices have lifted cash cost lines for coal-based urea production, providing further price support.