Haitong International has released a research report indicating that the Zimbabwean government has recently made significant adjustments to its lithium ore export policy. It has granted export quotas to six major lithium concentrate producers, including Sinomine Resource Group and Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group, while "soft-lifting" the export ban implemented in February this year. The six companies receiving quotas are all large-scale, asset-heavy enterprises deeply aligned with local industrialization goals. It is anticipated that industry concentration will continue to increase, with small and medium-sized traders and entities lacking processing commitments being further marginalized, thereby enhancing the pricing power of leading players. Haitong International's main views are as follows:
The Zimbabwean government has recently made important adjustments to its lithium ore export policy, granting export quotas to six major lithium concentrate producers and effectively lifting the export ban imposed in February this year. The six approved companies include Sinomine Resource Group, Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group, Yahua Industrial Group, Huayou Cobalt, Tsingshan Group, and mines under the Mutapa Investment Fund. This policy adjustment provides operational certainty for these enterprises.
The core of this policy adjustment lies in the quota system model. Mines Minister Polite Kambamura explicitly stated that the government has set 11 strict conditions for lithium producers, and companies can no longer freely decide export volumes and batches. More importantly, the government has set the deadline for fully liberalizing exports for January 1, 2027, contingent upon these enterprises establishing lithium salt processing facilities in Zimbabwe by that time.
Reviewing the policy terms, the 11 conditions include: companies must provide written commitments to build lithium sulfate plants before January 1, 2027; mandatory disclosure of annual financial statements starting from December 2025; full compliance with labor, safety, and environmental requirements; establishment of mine laboratories within three months; and monthly progress reports to a ministerial committee. Meanwhile, the 10% export tax on lithium concentrate will remain in place until the 2027 deadline.
This signifies Zimbabwe's intent to tighten management over lithium resource exports. For companies, future competitiveness will no longer depend solely on resource reserves and mining capabilities but will increasingly hinge on compliance capabilities, capital expenditure fulfillment, and the ability to establish local processing facilities.
Regarding the impact on the industrial chain, Zimbabwe is China's second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports. In 2025, China imported approximately 1.2 million metric tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, accounting for about 15% of China's total lithium concentrate imports. The six companies receiving quotas are all large, asset-heavy leaders deeply integrated with local industrialization objectives. It is foreseeable that industry concentration will continue to rise, further squeezing out small and medium-sized traders and entities lacking processing capabilities, thereby strengthening the bargaining power of leading companies.
Based on previous assessments, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 2.0-2.1 million metric tons by 2026. If Zimbabwe's resumption of lithium concentrate exports under the quota system is implemented soon, the total supply impact during the full ban period is estimated at around 30,000 metric tons. The supply and demand for lithium carbonate are expected to remain in a tight balance.
Investment recommendation: In the context of Zimbabwe's quota system implementation, focus on Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Sinomine Resource Group (002738.SZ), Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group (002240.SZ), Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM.US), Albemarle Corporation (ALB.US), and Ganfeng Lithium Group (002460.SZ). Among these, Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group, and Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group directly benefit from the reopening of Zimbabwean export channels. The quota system will alleviate their inventory pressure and cash flow risks, ensuring normal lithium concentrate shipments and subsequent local smelting investment progress. SQM, ALB, and Ganfeng Lithium Group, as global lithium resource leaders, indirectly benefit from the optimized supply structure—Zimbabwe's policy constraints mean actual supply increments are limited and unlikely to alter the global tight balance in lithium supply and demand. Lithium price benchmarks are expected to remain high, benefiting leading companies with high self-sufficiency rates and favorable positions on the cost curve.
Risk factors: Policy volatility and implementation uncertainties; risks associated with meeting the 2027 deadline; logistics and shipping risks.