South Korea appears most directly exposed to the pipeline shutdown, with Saudi crude making up 34.1% of its total imports in July. Experts note that much of the crude previously shipped to Asia via the Strait of Hormuz had already been diverted to this now-idled pipeline.

Analysts say the near-term impact is more visible in higher spot crude prices and freight costs rather than an actual shortage of physical supply. On Wednesday, June 24, 2026, at dawn in Ulsan, South Korea, an LPG tanker was docked at storage tanks at SK Innovation's Ulsan refinery complex. Brent crude has since given back all of its war-driven gains following progress in US-Iran peace talks and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline will further squeeze already tight supplies for four major Asian importers, with South Korea carrying the highest immediate risk. According to data from the Korea International Trade Association, Saudi crude accounted for 34.1% of South Korea's imports in July; Japanese official figures show Saudi crude at 27.3% of its import mix; Chinese customs data put the Saudi share at 14.9%; and Kpler data shows Saudi crude at 10.2% of India's imports.

While these dependency ratios do not directly translate into the volume of crude affected by the pipeline outage, restricted exports from the Strait of Hormuz have already pushed Saudi Arabia to shift substantial export volumes to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which connects to the pipeline. Thomas Luedi, head of Bain & Company's Asia-Pacific energy and natural resources practice, says the vast majority of Saudi crude previously exported from Gulf ports is now being loaded at Yanbu instead.

Luedi estimates that around 4 million barrels per day of Asian crude supply is at risk; Oriano Lizza, a sales trader at CMC Markets, calculates the affected volume at 3.5-4.5 million barrels per day once inventories at Yanbu and in Egypt are drawn down. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, says that if the pipeline remains shut for a month and Red Sea storage at Yanbu is exhausted, the market would lose 120 million barrels of crude. That projection assumes pipeline export capacity of 4.5 million barrels per day and 15 million barrels stored at Yanbu.

Yanbu's crude inventories, alternative loading from other Gulf ports, or a partial restart of the pipeline could all significantly reduce the actual volume disrupted. For refiners, the more immediate pressure comes from rising costs rather than physical crude scarcity. "Asian refineries will feel the cost increase right away, while physical supply shortages will only show up weeks later," Lizza said. He pointed to widening premiums for medium sour crude and higher delivered freight costs as the first signs of market strain. Morningstar echoes that view. "The biggest short-term shock will likely be in oil prices and freight, not physical crude availability," said Ivan Lee, Morningstar's head of equity research.

The real impact on crude flows is not expected to fully materialize until later this year. Luedi and Lizza estimate that crude inventories at Yanbu and in Egypt can sustain export operations for roughly one to two weeks. Once those stocks are depleted and if the pipeline remains closed, port loadings will decline; replacement cargoes from the Americas or West Africa would take over a month to reach Asia. Macquarie Group strategists believe Asian refiners' strong feedstock flexibility will help cushion the blow from any Saudi supply disruption. The improved ability of Asian refineries to process different crude grades is supporting supply resilience in the spot market.

The duration of the disruption remains unclear, with Saudi authorities yet to give a timeline for repair and restart of the pipeline. Reports suggest repair work could take three to six weeks. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that the crucial Saudi East-West pipeline would be back online "soon."