Key developments over the past two days show that long-term, steadfast Bitcoin investors have sold approximately $2.4 billion worth of the cryptocurrency.

In a notable shift, 26% of the Bitcoin sold in the last 30 days originated from investors whose entry cost exceeded $90,000 per coin. Analyst Ed Engel from Compass Point commented, "A collective capitulation by large-scale investors who bought at lower prices is a classic characteristic of a bear market's final stages. This reinforces our conviction that Bitcoin's current bear cycle is approaching its end."

Analysis from brokerage firm Compass Point indicates that major Bitcoin holders, previously committed to long-term positions, have now joined the selling wave. This development may signal that the ongoing downturn in the cryptocurrency market is nearing its conclusion.

In a research report issued on Tuesday, the firm's analyst, Ed Engel, explained that long-term holders are defined as investors who have held their positions for at least 155 days (roughly five months). This group largely maintained their holdings from February through April of this year but has increasingly turned to selling in recent weeks.

Engel stated that this cohort's collective selling of around $2.4 billion in Bitcoin over the past two days has significantly altered the asset's supply and demand dynamics.

He also highlighted that, of the Bitcoin sold in the last month, 26% came from capital that entered the market at prices above $90,000.

"These heavily invested, high-entry-price investors endured the entire bear market, but as Bitcoin continued to set new cycle lows, they ultimately chose to cut their losses and exit. This mass surrender by major holders at high cost bases is a common signal of a bear market's final phase, leading us to conclude that Bitcoin's bear market is very close to ending," Engel said.

Bitcoin's struggle to reclaim its all-time high of over $126,000 from October of last year has been hampered by uncertainty stemming from geopolitical conflict in Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. stock markets continue to reach new record highs. This severe divergence in the performance of the two asset classes has led the market to question Bitcoin's two core investment narratives: its role as "digital gold" offering a safe-haven and store of value during geopolitical turmoil, and its historical correlation with high-volatility, growth-oriented tech stocks.

According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net capital outflow for the 12th consecutive trading day on Tuesday, marking the longest streak of withdrawals on record. The total assets under management for these ETFs have shrunk from $107.8 billion on May 14 to $85 billion.

On Monday, market panic selling emerged, partly influenced by a strategic investment firm's minor sale of 32 Bitcoins. This triggered a cascade of liquidations for leveraged long positions, further dragging down the price. Bitcoin's weekly decline has now reached 12%. However, analysts widely agree that the firm's small-scale sale was not the primary driver of the price drop.

Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders noted in a report, "ETF fund flows are a core factor influencing Bitcoin's price, explaining about 45% of its weekly price volatility. They are also a key indicator for gauging market participation and sentiment. Currently, ETFs are seeing persistent net outflows, while the likelihood of the U.S. market structure bill passing—which could boost market confidence—continues to diminish."

He added, "In the absence of favorable regulatory developments or market-driven inflation-hedge buying due to fiscal concerns, and coupled with the ongoing decoupling of U.S. stock and cryptocurrency market trends, Bitcoin market sentiment is expected to remain subdued."