Renowned investor Duan Yongping said on social media today (October 21) that he will likely buy more shares of POP MART (09992). In recent days, Duan has been quite active, frequently sharing his views and thought process on a range of topics, including his earlier stake in Pop Mart, Apple's entry into the smart home space, his perspective on AI investing, and his heavily weighted positions in companies like Pinduoduo and Kweichow Moutai.

As a well-known entrepreneur who founded "Xiao Bawang" and "BBK," Duan Yongping has focused on investing for more than 20 years since "retiring." His investments in companies such as NetEase, Pinduoduo, and Kweichow Moutai are classic cases repeatedly discussed in investment circles. His fund portfolio has also been analyzed multiple times.

Duan began actively entering the AI space starting in the first quarter of 2025, adding important AI-related holdings such as Nvidia and TSMC to his portfolio and continuously increasing his positions. The AI concentration in his holdings gradually rose. By the end of the first quarter of this year, his position size had exceeded $20 billion. In his second-quarter rebalancing this year, Duan made a phased adjustment to tech stocks, significantly reducing his positions in Nvidia, Google, and other tech stocks that had posted large gains earlier; he increased his holdings in Pinduoduo and Berkshire, and bought back Alibaba.

Additionally, on May 7, 2026, Duan posted that he had fully liquidated his position in China Shenhua and swapped entirely into Pop Mart, officially building a large-scale position. On May 25, Hong Kong Exchange disclosure documents showed that Duan held a total of 76.3716 million shares of Pop Mart, making him the second-largest shareholder after founder Wang Ning. His cost was around HK$150 per share, corresponding to a position value of more than HK$11 billion. In early July 2026, Duan continued to add to his position, with his holdings once reaching 102 million shares and his stake rising to 7.65%, the peak of this round of accumulation. On July 23, Duan posted: "I've only just started buying Pop Mart. I most likely won't sell within 10 years."

Recently, Pop Mart's share price has fallen continuously. As of October 21, it closed at HK$129.8, down about 15% since the start of October. Duan may currently be sitting on a paper loss on this investment. But Duan candidly admitted, "There's no regret medicine in this world. If I knew it would fall, of course I'd wait. The key is that no matter what you do, you yourself must feel that this thing makes sense 10 years from now, otherwise you shouldn't do it." He also said he will likely buy some more, but not more than 10% of the company. As for the AI investment race, he commented, "Investing in AI feels a bit like a 'prisoner's dilemma.' Those who don't invest will most likely fall behind." However, regarding the computing power industry, he said frankly that he doesn't understand it well enough to make a heavy bet, nor does he dare to hold for 10 years.

He also mentioned companies he is heavily invested in or has previously held large positions in, such as Pinduoduo and Kweichow Moutai. Duan Yongping has always advocated the core principle that "buying a stock is buying a company." In his exchanges with netizens, he is also straightforward, without excessive embellishment, only candid communication. On closer reflection, one may be able to understand and learn from the underlying logic and methods of his investing. The following is a curated selection of the essence of Duan Yongping's sharing:

Buying Pop Mart Should Not Underperform Bank Deposits After 10 Years

1. Q: What do you think of Pop Mart's recent decline? Do you regret buying too early or too high? Duan Yongping: There's no regret medicine in this world. If I knew it would fall, of course I'd wait. My Apple holdings have fallen more than 40% from their highs at least three times. If I could buy at the low every time, I'd be a god, but even gods can't do that. The key is that no matter what you do, you yourself must feel that this thing makes sense 10 years from now, otherwise you shouldn't do it. The money I've allocated to Pop Mart is already sufficient. I don't want to "fight" anyone. The only final buyer of a company is the company itself. We are all passersby. (October 17, 2026)

2. Q: In terms of opportunity cost, with the Apple calls you've written, would you choose to buy more Pop Mart at the current price? Duan Yongping: I should buy some more, but not more than 10% of the company, otherwise the company would have a problem with me. With NetEase, I also only reached about 10% at most. Now I'm being made to look like a Pop Mart agent. I don't want to answer this kind of question anymore. Anyway, I've said everything I need to say about my views. If you miss it, you'll know in a few years. (October 21)

3. Q: Buffett once said to buy businesses so good that even a fool can run them. Do you think Pop Mart is currently such a company? Duan Yongping: Pop Mart still needs capable people to run it well.

4. Q: Do you have a rough price target for Pop Mart in mind? Duan Yongping: I'm thinking about what price Pop Mart will be at in 10 years. I think the holding return should not underperform bank deposits.

Pop Mart Provides Emotional Value at a Low Cost; The Wider the Moat, the Harder to Replicate

5. Duan Yongping: People's misunderstanding of games has actually extended to products like Pop Mart. Many people think this is something kids like, but most players are actually adults, just like with games. Life is really about exchanging time for happiness (if possible). Online games and Pop Mart provide emotional value, and it may actually be the cheapest kind.

6. Q: In Pop Mart's business model and corporate culture, what cannot be replicated, and what cannot be imitated? Duan Yongping: How much do you think it would cost to replicate Kweichow Moutai or Apple? If it could be replicated, someone would have done it already! The wider the moat, the harder it is to replicate. That's the meaning of a business model. Look at how many companies want to enter the trendy toy space and replicate Pop Mart. Even giants like Alibaba and Tencent can't find their way. It suddenly occurred to me that there actually is a way to replicate Moutai. Currently, the cost to replicate Moutai is RMB 1.68 trillion, to replicate Apple is $4.45 trillion, and to replicate Pop Mart is HK$203.3 billion. (August 12)

7. Q: Can LV bags be sold using a blind box format? Duan Yongping: Products with strong functionality probably can't use blind boxes, and expensive things probably can't either. The reason Pop Mart is impressive is not because of blind boxes. There are so many blind box sellers in the market—how many are actually hot? Imagine going to an Apple store and buying an iPhone blind box. You pay 5,000 yuan first, with a 1% chance of getting an iPhone 18, and the rest being iPhone 17 to iPhone 6. Consumers would be furious. If you can't figure this out, it may have to do with your lack of understanding of the business.

8. Q: You said Pop Mart's business model is not linear growth. What's the reason? Duan Yongping: Actually, no company grows linearly. Pop Mart's scale isn't large enough yet, so it's just easier to see. Nvidia doesn't grow linearly either, and neither does Apple. The vast majority of companies find it very hard to experience more than 10 years of linear growth. When I was at Xiao Bawang, we grew over 100% every year, but by year seven it ended.

9. Duan Yongping: I feel there's quite a big difference in the sense of purpose between people visiting Pop Mart stores and those visiting Apple stores. I'd guess most people going to Apple stores have a clear purpose, while people visiting Pop Mart stores are mainly there to browse and buy whatever catches their eye, with a much higher probability of random purchases, and the probability of leaving empty-handed isn't high.

Wouldn't Pinduoduo's Future Profit of 80 Billion Be Great?

10. Q: Why can Apple get a PE of nearly 40 times, while Pinduoduo only gets about 4 times? Duan Yongping: What does valuation mean? It means guessing what price others are willing to pay. The most critical thing is what price you yourself are willing to pay. If you don't understand companies or business, valuation will be a very painful thing for you, because your valuation will fluctuate up and down with the share price.

11. Q: Pinduoduo's market cap is now about 750 billion, net cash is about 630 billion, and it earns about 100 billion a year. What's the probability that future net profit reaches 200 billion? Duan Yongping: Don't you think 80 billion in the future sounds great? (October 16, 2026)

Apple Should Have Done Smart Home Long Ago; Once Bought Apple Up to Over 95% of His Portfolio

12. Q: Apple has started rolling out smart home devices. Do you like this long term? Is this the right thing to do? I heard preparations began back in 2014. Duan Yongping: Apple should have done this well long ago. I don't know why it's never been great. For smart home, Apple's ecosystem should be the most advantageous, at least in the United States. (October 16)

13. Q: I'm starting to understand Apple a bit, but I still don't understand well enough how to find another company with a good business... Duan Yongping: At the time (2011), Apple's market cap was only about $300 billion, but it had $100 billion in net cash, and was already earning $15–16 billion a year. What I saw was that Apple's future profit would definitely reach $50 billion a year or more. At the time, Apple made a small mistake by delaying the launch of large-screen phones, so for about three years Apple's share price stayed at low levels. During those three-plus years, I went from planning to invest 10% to ultimately investing over 95%, swapping almost all other stocks in hand into Apple. I absolutely was not gambling—I truly understood this company. Such opportunities don't come often, but when you recognize them, being able to make a heavy bet is very important. (October 16)

14. Q: Truly understanding, truly daring to take a heavy position, truly able to hold—that's what makes a true investment master. Duan Yongping: If you can't hold, it just means you didn't understand. From the perspective that buying a stock is buying a company, you shouldn't be affected by the market. The market is like a child who changes expressions—one moment it can crush prices to the floor, the next it can lift them to the sky. The market is just a short-term voting machine.

Apple's New Product Capacity Ramp-Up May Take Longer

15. Q: I opened the Apple Store two minutes early on Friday, but by 8:09 pm the page still wouldn't open. After selecting and submitting the order (for iPhone Duo), even the first batch has a delivery time of nearly two months. Duan Yongping: I think Apple may be very cautious. After all, it's a brand-new product, and the volume prepared is very conservative. Production ramp-up for this kind of product is also very slow, so a longer time is normal. A year from now, they should have a clearer idea of how much to prepare. Apple's entry should also give a bit of a boost to Android foldable screens. (October 17, 2026)

16. Q: If you had money now, would you buy Apple or Pop Mart? Duan Yongping: At the current price, I'm selling Apple calls. I really like Apple, but at this price I find it hard to buy. (October 17) Apple is undoubtedly a good company, currently with a $5 trillion market cap. Currently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.2% per year. 50000/0.59812=83595.26. In other words, if you spent $5 trillion today to buy Treasuries, in 10 years you'd get back $8.36 trillion. Based on Apple's current profit, to earn $3.36 trillion over the next 10 years, annual profit growth would need to be 12.6%. It's not easy to maintain that growth rate on the current base. But if you believe Apple's growth can reach or exceed that by a lot, then Apple's price actually isn't expensive, even though it has already risen a lot. (October 18)

AI Buildout Faces Homogeneous Price Competition That Will Eventually Arrive

17. Q: Regarding CRWV (CoreWeave, the Nvidia-backed cloud service company), its customers have ample cash flow and long-term contracts, and there are plenty of customers lining up to pay CRWV. Yet hedge funds are worried it will blow up in 5 years... Duan Yongping: I took a quick look. This company's product is indeed competitive in the short term, but in 3–5 years it will most likely face homogeneous product competition. I think it's a lot like solar products, but the barriers to entry are much higher. Of course, if AI demand grows faster than buildout, the time before facing homogenization may be delayed somewhat, but homogeneous price competition will inevitably arrive, and it will be brutal. However, if computing power is truly extremely scarce in the short term, they might have a few very good years (much like high-end memory), and maybe they could earn back the current investment or even more. I don't understand this industry well enough to make a heavy bet, nor do I dare to hold for 10 years. (October 19)

18. Q: CRVW, a new cloud service provider, borrows at high interest rates to do computing power leasing. The model is unsustainable. Once demand slows, the risk is very high. The stock price trend reflects this expectation. Duan Yongping: The problem is that demand slowdown may be something that happens 5 years from now. By then these companies may have already made a fortune.

AI Short Dramas Will Hit Movies Quite Hard; Investing in AI Is a Bit Like a "Prisoner's Dilemma"

19. Q: Do you think short dramas have a big impact on games? Duan Yongping: AI short dramas will have a considerable impact on movies. They're all competing for time.

20. Q: I always feel Jensen Huang is a bit lacking in duty now, crazily promoting that AI is not a bubble, that if you buy computing power you make money, but in reality large model companies currently only have revenue and no profit, surviving on financing. Duan Yongping: Have you already determined that AI is a bubble? When you have time, watch videos of Jensen Huang from the past fifteen years.

21. Q: With massive AI-era investment, internet giants are increasingly looking like heavy-asset industries. Is their business model deteriorating? Duan Yongping: Their revenue hasn't deteriorated. It's just that AI requires investing for the future. Investing in AI now feels a bit like a "prisoner's dilemma." Those who don't invest will most likely fall behind.

22. Q: Do you usually use AI to assist in analyzing companies? If you use AI, what aspects would you analyze? Duan Yongping: I only use AI to collect information. The analysis still has to be done by myself. If you don't understand companies or business, AI may not help, and may even make you busier.

Moutai Is Steadier, Pop Mart Has More Upside; Looking 10 Years Out, Moutai Is Really Not Expensive Now

23. Q: Could you reference Buffett's decade-long bet and use a public, ten-year investment wager to teach A-shares and all investors a lesson about "the compounding of time"? Duan Yongping: I dare to bet 100 million RMB on Moutai against any domestic fund, with a ten-year limit. The premise is that beforehand it's agreed that the recipient of the winner's donation must be approved by the other side. I would donate to BBK Experimental School. There are too many details that can't be clarified. Unless a very credible institution steps forward to do this. If both sides agree, then donate the money first, and the loser pays the other side after 10 years. (August 13, 2026)

24. Duan Yongping: Although good companies are also affected by the macro environment, because good companies are mostly healthier, their impact tends to be smaller than average, and they often come back faster. As far as Moutai is concerned, for a period of time Moutai's sales will certainly be affected by the real estate cycle, business conditions, and alcohol bans, but in the long run, iMoutai has likely solved the problem of where to buy genuine Moutai, and seems to have opened a channel for ordinary consumers. With so many families, the probability of having a bottle during holidays each year is still quite high. The power of ants as an army is enormous. For people who want to buy a stock and have it rise immediately for a quick profit, Moutai is probably not suitable, because no one knows where Moutai will ultimately fall to. But looking back 10 years from now, today's Moutai is truly not expensive. (January 22, 2026)

25. Duan Yongping: From the perspective of the next 10 years, Moutai is steadier, while Pop Mart has more appreciation potential (and possibly greater volatility as well). (July 10, 2026)

26. Q: Investing is a bit like being in prison. You know there will be a day when you get out, but you have to keep waiting. Duan Yongping: If you owned a non-listed company, like Moutai, would you really feel that way? (October 18, 2026)

27. Q: Do you mean how can young people with no money consume Moutai? Duan Yongping: What I mean is that young people have better metabolism. Drinking some beer probably isn't a big problem. It has nothing to do with beer... Once they start getting beer bellies, you'll understand.