Geopolitical uncertainties between the U.S. and Iran persist, pushing oil prices higher. On February 10, the SC2604 contract saw an intraday increase of over 1%, with crude oil leading related upstream oil products to rise in sync. In the short term, close attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation. Additionally, the weekly API and EIA inventory data, released on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, may influence short-term crude oil trends. Due to the impact of recent cold weather, last week's inventory saw a significant drawdown. If commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories continue to decline, support for oil prices will strengthen.

Geopolitical tensions have become the core factor driving short-term fluctuations in crude oil. The U.S. has issued new guidance for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to advisory guidelines released by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration, the agency recommends that "U.S.-flagged commercial vessels stay as far away as possible from Iranian territorial waters and verbally refuse if Iranian forces request to board. If Iranian forces do board, the crew should not offer forcible resistance." OPEC's oil production declined in January, offsetting production increases from some members, including Venezuela—following the U.S. capture of Maduro and the end of oil sanctions. A survey showed that OPEC's crude oil output in January was 28.34 million barrels per day, down by 60,000 barrels per day from December, with Nigeria recording the largest decline. The European Union has proposed extending sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, marking the first time the EU has targeted ports in third countries. The proposal indicates that Georgia's Kulevi and Indonesia's Karimun will be added to the sanctions list, prohibiting EU companies and individuals from conducting transactions with these two ports. Currently, U.S.-Iran geopolitical factors remain volatile, and EU sanctions targeting third countries continue to create uncertainty on the supply side. Oil prices are expected to experience repeated fluctuations in the short term.