JPMorgan's latest research report indicates that the Policy Address and Hong Kong's first "five-year plan" delivered no major surprises to the market. In the private residential sector, despite numerous proposals raised previously, the only marginally supportive measure was a HK$20,000 stamp duty exemption for families with newborns. However, the bank views this as an initiative aimed at encouraging childbirth rather than boosting the housing market, especially given that home prices have already climbed 12% this year.

As for the "five-year plan," its key performance indicators came in slightly weaker than the bank had anticipated. Policy emphasis remains on accelerating the development of the "Northern Metropolis," which benefits Henderson Land (00012) and SHK PPT (00016), but this outcome was already widely expected by the market. In the near term, the bank expects Hong Kong property stocks to remain under pressure due to interest rate hikes and uncertainties surrounding outward direct investment (ODI); by contrast, it holds a more favorable view on yield-focused landlords such as Swire Properties (01972), Wharf REIC (01997), and Hongkong Land.

For the banking sector, the "five-year plan" sends a positive signal as it cements Hong Kong's status as a leading financial hub and underscores continued policy commitment to RMB internationalization. These measures should provide tailwinds for wealth management and corporate and institutional banking (CIB)/financial markets businesses, with StanChart (02888) and HSBC HOLDINGS (00005) standing out as primary beneficiaries. Meanwhile, plans to support the "Northern Metropolis" and technology financing are expected to drive loan growth for banks over the long term; given its stronger capital position, BOC Hong Kong (02388) may have greater upside potential than its peers.

However, since the plan did not announce any brand-new initiatives and implementation details for long-term targets remain unclear, the bank does not expect to revise its earnings-per-share forecasts upward until policy execution clarity improves. It also believes that the stock market reaction may remain subdued in the near term.