Chinese brokerage shares are experiencing a collective rebound. As of the time of publication, CICC (03908) has risen by 5.4% to HKD 22.26; CSC (06066) is up 4.16% at HKD 13.77; HTSC (06886) increased by 3.79% to HKD 20.82; and CGS (06881) is up 3.56% trading at HKD 11.63. On the news front, on the evening of October 14, Dongwu Securities released an earnings forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 2.748 billion and RMB 3.023 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65%, surpassing last year's full-year profit. Additionally, Dongguan Securities, a non-listed brokerage, disclosed in its recently updated prospectus that its total operating revenue for the first three quarters is expected to be between RMB 2.344 billion and RMB 2.591 billion, an increase of 44.93% to 60.18% compared to the same period last year; the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between RMB 862 million and RMB 953 million, representing a growth of 77.77% to 96.48% year-on-year. Founder Securities noted that in a high trading environment, the trend for the recovery of brokerages' fundamentals is clear. The significant growth trend in performance contrasts with valuation performance, highlighting opportunities for sector allocation. The firm pointed out that net profit for the brokerage sector grew by 65% year-on-year in the first half, and the growth rate for the third quarter is expected to accelerate to 70%, with the full-year net profit for the sector projected to increase by 54% year-on-year. Currently, broker valuations are misaligned with the improvement in performance, indicating ample room for valuation adjustments.
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