A recent business outlook survey by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce revealed that 48.3% of respondents hold a positive view of Hong Kong's economic prospects over the next 12 months, a significant rebound from last year's 18.3%. Only 15.3% expressed pessimism about 2026, down sharply from 44.3% in the previous survey.

Chamber Chairman Chen Ruijuan noted that the U.S.-China tariff truce and progress in Middle East peace talks may have influenced this year's results, boosting corporate confidence. However, she cautioned that optimism does not yet translate to tangible improvements, given persistent uncertainties. As an export-driven economy, Hong Kong's actual investment remains vulnerable to global fluctuations.

Economist Feng Kaiying highlighted that U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit Hong Kong's property market, though future easing pace remains uncertain. She expects the stock market and IPO activities to thrive, aided by the one-year U.S.-China trade pause reducing external uncertainties. Strong demand for AI-related electronic components—a key Hong Kong export—may also provide short-term economic support. However, she warned of potential export slowdowns in 2026 due to steady global recovery, lingering tariff impacts, U.S. trade policy risks, and semiconductor shortages.

While retail sales growth accelerated recently, Feng questioned its sustainability into 2026. AI adoption might temporarily push unemployment above 4% by displacing entry-level jobs, potentially dampening consumer spending.

Survey findings showed over 70% of firms reported stable or increased revenue in the first 10 months of 2025, with 41.5% maintaining status quo. For 2026, 40.3% anticipate growth, while 44.1% expect stability. Capital investment plans remain cautious—65.7% foresee unchanged levels—though firms are more optimistic about diversifying into emerging markets like Southeast Asia (41.1% planning increased ASEAN investments) and the Middle East (26.2%).

Despite 90% of businesses integrating AI or digital tools, most are in early or intermediate stages. SMEs lag significantly, with 14% yet to adopt such technologies versus 2% of large firms. Among adopters, 75.5% cited operational efficiency as the top benefit, though 53.8% identified talent shortages and high costs as key transformation barriers. Only 24.3% expect substantial digital progress soon.

Regarding staffing, 22.5% plan to hire more in 2026, while 55.9% will maintain current levels. Chamber CEO Chen Weitian observed that large firms lead in AI adoption, but overall engagement has risen year-on-year. He emphasized that businesses remain in a learning phase, with resource allocation challenges hindering rapid outcomes.