Earnings Preview | Stablecoin Leader Circle (CRCL.US) Q3 Results Loom: Can It Withstand PayPal and Coinbase's Strong Competition?

Stock News
11/10

The stablecoin leader Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL.US) is set to release its Q3 2025 financial results on November 12. Market consensus currently expects revenue of $710 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17. Improved regulatory conditions and growing demand for stablecoins like USDC are favorable for the company's long-term growth prospects. Additionally, its expanding partnership network is expected to drive revenue growth in the coming quarters.

**Stablecoin Growth Remains Steady** Circle’s Q3 performance may benefit from the steady expansion of its flagship stablecoin, USDC. By the end of Q2, USDC’s circulating supply stood at $61.3 billion, rising to $65.2 billion as of August 10, 2025. On-chain transaction volume for USDC reached nearly $6 trillion in Q2, a 5.4x increase year-over-year. Trading activity further accelerated in July, with volumes hitting $2.4 trillion. The number of active wallets holding over $10 in USDC surged 68% YoY.

Circle’s institutional adoption is also growing, with more exchanges, trading firms, wallets, and banks integrating its wallet and liquidity solutions. USDC’s global adoption has expanded significantly, with holdings on Circle’s own platform increasing tenfold YoY, accounting for 10% of total USDC issuance in Q2.

New products launched over the past year are likely to contribute to the upcoming quarterly results. The Circle payment network is now operational in Hong Kong, Brazil, Nigeria, and Mexico, with over 100 financial institutions expressing interest in joining, reflecting its expanding user base. In July 2025, Circle introduced Circle Gateway, facilitating easier cross-chain USDC transfers, and launched Arc, a new Layer-1 blockchain tailored for payments, forex, and other financial applications.

Overall, robust growth in USDC transactions, increased platform usage, and new product rollouts are expected to support Circle’s Q3 performance.

**Intensifying Competitive Pressure** In Q2 2025, Circle expanded partnerships with major exchanges like Binance and OKX, which are promoting USDC and Circle’s wallet technology on large trading platforms. The company also signed agreements with payment infrastructure giants like FIS, Corpay, and Matera, serving tens of thousands of banks and advancing stablecoin integration into traditional finance.

However, Circle faces fierce competition from established players like Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), PayPal (PYPL), and Fiserv. Fiserv partnered with North Dakota banks to launch "Roughrider Coin," a dollar-backed stablecoin built on its digital asset platform. Coinbase acquired Deribit, a leading crypto options exchange, strengthening its position as a comprehensive crypto derivatives platform. Meanwhile, PayPal rolled out "Pay with Crypto," enabling U.S. merchants to accept crypto payments with near-instant settlement, simplifying global customer outreach.

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