Come 24:00 on September 24, the next adjustment window for domestic refined oil product retail price caps will open. While oil prices have pulled back from recent highs due to factors such as expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike and signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, the domestic crude oil change rate remains firmly in positive territory. According to industry forecasts, the probability of a retail price hike for domestic refined oil products in the current pricing cycle is relatively high.

Drivers planning to refuel are advised to fill up their tanks before the 24:00 deadline on September 24 to avoid higher costs. On September 22, international crude oil futures settled lower. By the close, light sweet crude for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $94.59 per barrel, down 1.24%, while Brent crude for November delivery on the London ICE Futures Exchange settled at $99.25 per barrel, down 1.09%.

According to calculations by JLC Network Technology, as of the ninth working day on September 23, the average price of the referenced crude oil varieties stood at $102.20 per barrel, with a change rate of 8.62%. This implies that domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be raised by 490 yuan per ton. The final magnitude of the increase will depend on international oil price performance on the last working day and whether relevant national authorities implement any temporary regulatory measures.

During the previous adjustment on the evening of September 11, to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices on the domestic market, the National Development and Reform Commission adopted temporary control measures within the framework of the existing pricing mechanism. Instead of the originally calculated increases of 435 yuan per ton for gasoline and 420 yuan per ton for diesel, the actual increases were adjusted to 260 yuan per ton and 250 yuan per ton, respectively.

Here is the official oil price adjustment calendar for 2026. Note that the specific adjustment amounts will be subject to the figures published by the National Development and Reform Commission.