The optical chip sector has experienced back-to-back declines since the end of China's National Day holiday, with the A-share optical chip index falling more than 9% in October.

The main disturbance stems from a research report released by Morgan Stanley predicting that the FCC will impose a "65% US content" threshold on Chinese-made optical modules, intensifying concerns that restrictive overseas policies on optical modules will be implemented sooner than expected.

In response to the rumors, several domestic optical chip listed companies have issued clarifications, stating that the relevant wording is merely institutional research projections and not officially enacted policy.

On Wednesday afternoon, the A-share market staged a V-shaped reversal, with the recently underperforming technology sector rebounding in tandem.

Some brokerages have recently expressed the view that although the technology sector has been undergoing continuous adjustment, given the still-high prosperity of related industries, the market's main investment theme is expected to remain in the technology sector.

Another view holds that the current period is a window for actively positioning in the year-end "meal rally," with the AI industry trend being the most important direction.

On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, A-share domestic optical chip stocks collectively declined.

Market analysis suggests that one major trigger for the volatility was a research report released by Morgan Stanley on October 1, titled "Potential FCC Rules on Optical Transceivers More Likely to Come in at 3.2T."

Meanwhile, the A-share optical communication sector has recently experienced consecutive adjustments.

Since October, the A-share optical chip index has cumulatively fallen more than 9%.

However, according to the body of the Morgan Stanley report, the information source is a meeting between its strategy team and a senior legal team, and the report extensively uses vague phrasing such as "potential," "may," and "could," lacking any formal FCC rule text.

In response, several A-share optical chip listed companies have successively issued clarifications.

According to investor research minutes disclosed by Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. on October 8, company management responded to rumors regarding restrictions on domestic optical chip procurement.

The company stated, "The claim circulating in the market about a 65% US-origin material ratio is unofficial market rumor, not a formally published and effective regulatory requirement. Some optical chips used in the company's optical module business are self-developed and self-produced, accounting for no more than 10% of the overall BOM cost of optical modules. The vast majority of other materials can better adapt to origin ratio requirements, leaving ample compliance space. In the future, supply chain optimization can further meet relevant requirements, and the company does not rule out deploying capacity in the United States."

When asked whether current FCC policies affect the company's business, the company responded, "All products exported to the United States have completed FCC certification filings in accordance with relevant regulations. As of now, the company has not received any specific inquiries from customers regarding FCC-related matters. The 65% origin ratio requirement currently in market focus is only the content of a research institution's report, not an officially enacted policy or regulation, and has not yet impacted the company's current production and operations."

An official from the securities department of Suzhou Everbright Photonics Co., Ltd. told media that the "FCC 65%" clause mentioned in the Morgan Stanley report is not a formal regulation, and domestic 800G/1.6T optical chips remain extremely scarce in the short term.

Today, reporters contacted Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photons separately.

Regarding the potential impact of the Morgan Stanley report's claims on the company, a staff member on Shijia Photons' investor hotline said, "Since the content has not yet taken effect, we cannot predict the specific impact." The company's downstream customers are mainly optical module manufacturers.

Yuanjie Technology did not respond.

According to the reporter's observation, several points need to be clarified regarding the Morgan Stanley report's views: First, much of the content is not a formal policy document, and the authenticity of the information remains uncertain. Second, industry expectations indicate that 3.2T products will only begin ramping up in 2028 and enter broader deployment in 2029. The current market is still dominated by 800G and 1.6T, so the short-term substantive impact on the domestic optical chip industry is limited.

After yesterday's sharp adjustment, the A-share market opened lower this morning, with the AI supply chain plunging significantly at one point.

However, by the afternoon session, the A-share market staged a V-shaped rebound, and the recently underperforming AI supply chain also recovered.

Regarding the recent sharp adjustment in the optical chip sector, the strategy team at Huaan Securities noted in its latest research report that although leading domestic optical chip company Suzhou Everbright Photonics Co., Ltd. officially responded that the scenario described in the Morgan Stanley report is merely a policy assumption and current demand remains extremely strong, market risk appetite, especially in the technology sector, remains strongly suppressed.

Despite short-term market turbulence, the reporter observed that some mainstream institutions still believe the prosperity of the technology sector will continue to support market performance.

Speaking on whether the AI hard-tech sector still has investment potential, Li Xunlei, chief economist at Zhongtai International, noted in a recent interview that the market's main investment theme is expected to remain in the technology sector. To switch to other sectors, their fundamentals would need to change, requiring corresponding policy or increased fiscal spending at the macro level. Without fundamental changes in this regard, the market will continue to show divergence.

"From the data in the first half of this year, AI-related companies had the highest profit growth among all industries. Of course, AI itself involves survival of the fittest. Looking at AI-related ETFs, I remain optimistic. However, whether individual companies can avoid being eliminated in this round of technological revolution, or whether the strong can stay strong, is highly uncertain. So the AI sector will maintain a relatively strong trajectory, but individual stocks will diverge," Li Xunlei further stated.

Huaan Securities' strategy team pointed out in the research report that the current period is a window where external disturbances are expected to gradually ease while internal consensus is difficult to build, and the market is expected to continue fluctuating to accumulate momentum for the year-end "meal rally," with no need to worry about sharp declines.

In terms of allocation, the AI industry trend remains the most important direction.

Among them, the industrial prosperity trend in AI upstream and midstream hardware will be the optimal choice, including optical modules, PCB, CPO, optical fiber, liquid cooling, storage and semiconductor equipment chains, power equipment, and data centers.