GTHT has released a research report indicating that with the confirmation that the heavy truck "scrappage and renewal" policy will continue to be implemented through 2026, the firm anticipates domestic heavy truck sales could reach 850,000 units in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The policy's effect in 2025 was significant, creating a high base for sales, yet the firm observes that domestic logistics activity remains relatively robust. Given the high replacement base from the 2017-2021 period, domestic heavy truck sales are forecast to continue rising.

Looking at overall wholesale sales, the firm believes the 2026 figure could reach 1.25 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with exports expected to maintain their growth trajectory. The key viewpoints from GTHT are outlined below.

Overall Market Performance

In terms of total volume, domestic heavy truck sales in May reached 109,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year but a 6% decrease month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January to May totaled 544,000 units, up 23% year-on-year. The firm attributes the month-on-month decline in May primarily to a sharp drop in natural gas heavy truck sales caused by surging LNG prices, which dragged down the overall monthly sales figure. The year-on-year growth is largely credited to the accelerated phase-out and renewal of National V diesel heavy trucks in 2026, driven by competition and market pressure from gas-powered and electric heavy trucks, leading to strong demand for new vehicle purchases.

Natural Gas Heavy Truck Segment

Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, domestic sales in May were 16,000 units, a 27% increase year-on-year but a significant 36% drop month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January to May reached 101,000 units, up 35% year-on-year. For natural gas semi-trailer tractors specifically, May sales were 15,000 units, up 24% year-on-year but also down 36% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for this segment from January to May were 96,000 units, a 33% year-on-year increase. The penetration rate of natural gas in the heavy truck market was 15% in May and 19% for the January-May period.

Based on the firm's calculations for the total cost of ownership (TCO) over a heavy truck's lifecycle, using natural gas proves to be more economical for tractors with an average annual mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers for most of their operational period. The firm believes that, propelled by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, natural gas heavy trucks, as a lower-operating-cost option, have the potential to see their market penetration increase further.

New Energy Heavy Truck Segment

Turning to new energy heavy trucks, domestic sales in May were 26,000 units, surging 102% year-on-year and increasing 9% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January to May reached 104,000 units, a 74% year-on-year increase. The new energy penetration rate in the heavy truck market was 24% in May and 19% for the cumulative January-May period.

According to the firm's TCO analysis for heavy trucks, the optimal cost point for new energy heavy trucks generally falls within an annual mileage range of 45,000 to 100,000 kilometers. The firm contends that with advancing technology and declining costs, new energy heavy trucks now possess intrinsic growth momentum. The penetration rate of new energy is expected to continue growing in 2026, and it is crucial to monitor the implementation details of any scrappage and renewal policies specifically targeting new energy heavy trucks.

Potential Risks

The report concludes with risk warnings, noting potential downsides from economic development falling short of expectations and significant increases in raw material prices.