Abstract

Ameresco will report quarterly results on May 4, 2026 Post Market, and current projections point to higher year-over-year revenue alongside seasonally weak earnings per share, with investor attention centered on project execution, margin mix, and early-year funding and leadership updates.

Market Forecast

The current quarter consensus points to revenue of 362.92 million US dollars, up 18.39% year over year, and EBIT of 11.42 million US dollars, up 27.17% year over year. Adjusted EPS is projected at approximately -0.30, representing a year-over-year change of -7.73%; margin forecasts were not provided in the available estimates. The main business is expected to be led by Projects, which historically accounts for roughly three-quarters of quarterly revenue and should benefit from backlog conversion and recently completed contracts in early 2026. The most promising segment remains Energy Assets, which contributed an estimated 73.02 million US dollars last quarter based on segment mix; year-over-year data by segment was not disclosed in the dataset, though recurring contributions and tax-credit monetization should support growth.

Last Quarter Review

In the preceding quarter, Ameresco reported 581.03 million US dollars of revenue (up 9.08% year over year), a gross profit margin of 16.25%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of 18.37 million US dollars with a net profit margin of 3.16%, and adjusted EPS of 0.34 (down 51.43% year over year). The quarter modestly exceeded market expectations, with revenue surpassing the consensus by 24.94 million US dollars and adjusted EPS beating by approximately 0.02. By estimated mix, Projects contributed about 446.70 million US dollars (~76.88%), Energy Assets 73.02 million US dollars (~12.57%), Operations & Maintenance 33.99 million US dollars (~5.85%), and Other services 27.31 million US dollars (~4.70%), collectively delivering a 9.08% year-over-year lift in total revenue.

Current Quarter Outlook

Projects: Core revenue driver for Q1

The company’s quarterly cadence tends to see a softer earnings contribution in the first quarter even as revenue can grow year over year, and the present setup reflects that pattern: consensus expects revenue growth of 18.39% while EPS is projected at roughly -0.30. Project-based construction and energy solutions typically recognize revenue as milestones are completed, and the early-2026 news flow offers tangible catalysts for conversion. The completion of the Fort Polk modernization contract and county-level performance-contract work in Virginia points to steady throughput in federal, municipal, and infrastructure-oriented projects, which should help tilt this quarter’s topline higher relative to last year’s comparable period. Execution within the Projects book will likely be the most visible determinant of whether revenue lands above or in line with the 362.92 million US dollars estimate. Timing of site mobilization, customer acceptance, and supply logistics can push recognition across quarter boundaries, so the dispersion around consensus generally reflects this revenue timing risk. Given the size of Projects in the overall mix—roughly 76% by prior-quarter composition—small variations in conversion speed can have an outsized effect on consolidated revenue and the operating margin profile in any given quarter. Internally, the leadership realignment announced at the start of April—with two co-presidents responsible for discrete operating domains and a new chief operating officer centralizing procurement and project operations—supports the effort to sharpen execution discipline across complex builds. For this quarter, investors will focus on whether these changes translate to on-time, on-budget delivery and smoother handoffs into operations, which can stabilize gross margins around mid-teens despite inherent seasonality. With these factors in place, Projects should continue to anchor Q1 revenue while setting the stage for stronger contribution as the year progresses.

Energy Assets: Most promising growth contributor

Energy Assets remains the most promising structural growth contributor due to its recurring revenue profile and the supportive financing activities executed early in the year. Based on the reported mix, this segment contributed an estimated 73.02 million US dollars last quarter; while segment-specific year-over-year growth is not available in the dataset, the funding and tax-credit transfer activities completed in February help de-risk near-term project monetization. These developments provide cost-optimized capital to bring distributed generation and storage assets online and to monetize investment tax credits in cash flow, which should support both growth and margin accretion over time. The segment’s economics are generally less volatile than project EPC margins, and revenue recognition is steadier once assets are operational. As more projects transition from construction into service, contribution from Energy Assets should expand as a percentage of consolidated EBIT. The consensus calling for EBIT of 11.42 million US dollars this quarter, up 27.17% year over year, is consistent with a mix shift toward higher-quality, recurring contributions from the asset base, even as EPS remains seasonally negative. Investors are likely to monitor commissioning timelines and interconnection milestones closely; incremental slippage in these areas would delay revenue and cash contribution, while on-time energization can provide upside to operating income relative to the current estimate. Recent operational headlines—including the launch of a new 83 MW solar installation in Greece via the company’s joint venture—underscore the pipeline’s potential to add incremental recurring output as projects achieve COD. Although the immediate quarter’s financial impact from such projects can be limited by commissioning schedules, these assets build the foundation for higher run-rate revenue and better visibility into gross margin in the quarters ahead. For the current print, even modest expansion in Energy Assets’ contribution could help buffer project-mix pressure on margins.

Key stock-price drivers in this print

The biggest swing factor is likely to be the project timing curve: strong execution and milestone achievement can deliver revenue above 362.92 million US dollars, whereas delays could reduce reported revenue within the quarter and compress margin. Seasonality also matters: the company’s first quarter typically carries lower gross margin density and negative EPS; consensus embeds this with an EPS estimate of about -0.30, and a materially narrower or wider loss would likely drive a corresponding reaction in the shares. Management’s early April leadership adjustments are another watch item—investors will look for commentary on how the new co-presidents and COO roles are impacting backlog conversion, procurement, and schedule control. Funding conditions are a supportive catalyst. The completion of long-term debt financing for solar and battery storage projects, coupled with the transfer of applicable tax credits, suggests the capital stack is aligned for continued asset deployment in 2026. In combination with recent completions recognized in the quarter-to-date cadence, this context sets constructive expectations for Energy Assets’ revenue and EBIT contribution, even if the EPS line remains negative due to seasonality and the timing of operating expenses. Finally, any commentary on backlog visibility and the pace of notice-to-proceed across federal and municipal customers will be scrutinized. Clear signals that backlog is converting at or above plan could validate the 18.39% year-over-year revenue growth expectation. Conversely, if project start dates or supply items slip, investors may question the ability to sustain the higher revenue trajectory into subsequent quarters. The composition of revenue between Projects and Energy Assets will also influence the gross margin outcome for the quarter, given the differing margin profiles of build vs. own-and-operate contributions.

Analyst Opinions

Among the institutions tracked in the recent period, published views skew bullish when categorized as bullish versus bearish. Buy recommendations include Stifel Nicolaus, where analyst Stephen Gengaro maintained a Buy rating with a 37.00 US dollars price target, and B. Riley, which maintained its Buy stance while lifting its target to 47.00 US dollars. Neutral-to-Hold stances include Oppenheimer (Hold) and UBS (Neutral with a 28.00 US dollars target). Using a bullish-versus-bearish lens, this yields a majority in favor of bullish opinions, with no recognized Sell calls in the collected set for the covered timeframe. The bullish cohort points to a few common supports for the quarter: the year-over-year revenue growth expectation of 18.39% in Q1, the sequential improvement in project execution evidenced by on-time completions, and the improving medium-term contribution from Energy Assets as financing and tax-credit transfers lower deployment friction. Positive signals from early-2026 actions—such as the February financing and the April leadership realignment—are viewed as catalysts for more consistent execution. In this framing, the expected negative EPS for Q1 is viewed primarily as seasonal and not reflective of weakening demand; rather, analysts tend to frame it as a function of revenue mix and timing that should normalize into the mid-year quarters. Price targets in the bullish camp—37.00 US dollars at Stifel and 47.00 US dollars at B. Riley—suggest upside from current trading levels while acknowledging execution risk and quarterly variability. Analysts highlighting the Buy case typically point to: 1) backlog conversion and schedule fidelity within Projects; 2) ramping owned assets and rising recurring revenue contributing to EBIT growth; and 3) the funding framework that supports asset deployment without undue balance-sheet strain. This is broadly consistent with consensus modeling that anticipates EBIT of 11.42 million US dollars this quarter, up 27.17% year over year, even as EPS remains in seasonal loss. Neutral views, while not considered in the majority assessment, emphasize the same set of variables but focus on near-term uncertainties: construction timing, interconnection schedules, and the persistence of mid-teens gross margins during a seasonally soft quarter. These concerns inform the risk-reward framing around quarterly prints but, in the context of the collected opinions, do not outweigh the constructive medium-term setup cited by the bullish analysts. Overall, the prevailing institutional stance for this print is constructive: revenue growth is expected to accelerate year over year to 362.92 million US dollars, Energy Assets should continue to build recurring contribution, and funding and leadership changes are positioned to improve execution. The key to upside versus consensus is better-than-expected project milestone conversion and modest margin resilience; conversely, revenue timing slippage or wider-than-expected seasonal losses would challenge the bullish view for the quarter.