On Thursday, May 15, the international precious metals market closed with a clear divergence: gold faced modest pressure while silver experienced a significant decline. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a relatively strong U.S. dollar index jointly exerted pressure, partially offsetting safe-haven buying interest. Gold prices stabilized near $4,650 per ounce, while silver fell to around $83, marking a single-day drop of over four percentage points.
Market sentiment is being influenced by multiple macroeconomic signals. April retail sales showed a steady month-on-month increase of 0.5%, with March data revised upward to a 1.6% gain. Concurrently, initial jobless claims rose to 211,000, indicating a mild cooling in the labor market. The mixed data reinforced expectations of elevated yields in the near term, thereby dampening demand for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Additionally, while tensions in the Hormuz Strait persist, market participants have largely priced in the associated risk premium.
From a technical perspective, gold has established short-term support around $4,650, with further support near $4,500. Due to its higher industrial component, silver typically exhibits greater volatility than gold, and this recent adjustment reaffirms its high-elasticity characteristics. Trading activity was robust during the session, and implied volatility in options also increased, reflecting a lack of consensus among market participants on the near-term direction.
Looking ahead, gold and silver prices are expected to continue fluctuating based on three primary factors: the U.S. dollar, yields, and geopolitical developments. If tensions in the Middle East escalate further or if the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, gold could retest previous highs. Conversely, if the U.S. dollar maintains its strength, precious metals may remain range-bound. Investors are advised to manage positions carefully, monitor key resistance and support levels for decisive breaks, and avoid chasing rallies or selling into declines.