On October 31, CRIC Research released its 2025 January-October sales ranking of China's top 100 property developers. New home supply in October was halved, hitting the second-lowest monthly volume this year (only above February 2025). Transactions edged up 1% month-on-month but plummeted 36% year-on-year. The cumulative sales volume across 30 monitored cities in the first ten months reached 98.25 million square meters, with the year-to-date decline widening from 2% in September to 7%.

The top 100 developers recorded contracted sales of 253 billion yuan in October, a marginal 0.1% increase from September but a sharp 41.9% drop year-on-year. Their cumulative sales for January-October stood at 2.58 trillion yuan, down 16% YoY, with the decline accelerating by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months.

Among the top 100 developers, 48 saw monthly sales growth in October, including 20 firms with over 30% MoM increases. Notable performers included China Vanke (000002), Zhuhai Huafa Properties (600325), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Railway Construction (01186), Greenland Holdings (600606), and China Railway (00390). Six of the top 10 developers achieved MoM sales growth.

Sales thresholds across all tiers of the top 100 developers continued to decline YoY in October, hitting multi-year lows. The TOP10 threshold fell 9.4% YoY to 67.89 billion yuan, while TOP30 and TOP50 thresholds dropped 5.4% and 11.6% to 19.39 billion and 11.32 billion yuan respectively. The TOP100 threshold plunged 23.4% to 4.36 billion yuan. The TOP21-30 tier showed relative resilience with a 9.3% YTD decline, the only segment with a single-digit drop.

First-tier cities maintained flat MoM sales volume in October but suffered a 41% YoY plunge, worse than lower-tier cities. Guangzhou led with 610,000 sqm sold (up 6% MoM but down 46% YoY), while Beijing grew 19% MoM but fell 19% YoY. Shanghai and Shenzhen both saw over 40% YoY declines, reflecting fading policy stimulus and persistent buyer caution in the high-end segment.

Twenty-six second- and third-tier cities collectively transacted 7.91 million sqm, up 1% MoM but down 35% YoY. Chengdu dominated with 800,000 sqm sold, followed by Qingdao, Wuhan, and Xi'an maintaining over 600,000 sqm volumes. Some cities like Dongguan and Suzhou posted over 40% MoM gains due to low bases and price-driven promotions. Qingdao bucked the trend with 30% YoY growth in October and 6% YTD increase.

CRIC expects November sales to remain weak with further YoY declines likely due to high 2024 comparables. Market divergence will intensify: core cities like Beijing and Shanghai face mounting downward pressure, while recovering markets like Wuhan and Suzhou show gradual confidence restoration. Weaker cities including Nanning and Changzhou may sustain sub-20% inventory clearance rates.