As the national average diesel price in the United States climbs to a fresh record high of $6.53 per gallon, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is encouraging his advisors to support a ban on US diesel exports.

Asked about growing calls from Republican lawmakers to pause diesel exports, Trump responded, "I've already said, 'We don't want to send our diesel out.' I've called for it internally. I've been talking about it."

The president made these remarks during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. He has previously urged Zelensky to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, strikes that have prompted Russia to restrict its own diesel exports.

Russia's diesel export ban is set to last at least until September 30, as the government seeks to secure domestic supply amid Ukrainian attacks. Prior to the unprecedented wave of strikes, Russia was a major diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 10% of global supply.

Meanwhile, ongoing Middle East conflicts are tightening supply and driving diesel prices sharply higher this year. In the region, the continued standoff between the US and Iran is restricting energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas in peacetime, along with substantial volumes of petroleum products. Recent escalation between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi militants has also disrupted Red Sea shipping, and with refineries in the Middle East coming under attack, refined product supply from the Persian Gulf could become even more constrained.

Diesel fuels trucks, trains, ships, and heavy equipment, and also powers agricultural machinery, electricity generation, and home heating. Rising autumn heating and farming demand could amplify the impact further.

While diesel price increases often go unnoticed because consumers are more sensitive to retail gasoline prices, their effects ripple through food, transportation, construction, and commodity costs. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, described diesel as the "more hidden, more expensive, and more influential fuel," calling it the true lifeblood of the economy.

Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, warned that "every truck, every delivery, every package, every purchase becomes more expensive." He noted that Americans are now spending roughly $700 million more per day on gasoline and diesel than they did a year ago, and that record diesel prices will affect every shipment, every transport move, and could reignite inflation across the entire supply chain. He added that diesel at current levels acts as a "silent killer" for the economy.

Trump's push for a diesel export ban is aimed at lowering US diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections to ease voter concerns over rising living costs. With the elections approaching, record diesel prices could weaken support for Trump's Republican Party in agricultural states like Iowa, while also impacting states such as Maine that rely on home heating oil.

Regarding high diesel prices, Trump has previously denied that they result from the war against Iran he launched in late February. In a social media post, Trump wrote, "The global diesel price increase is mainly caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, not the Iran war."

However, data compiled by media outlets, cross-checked with estimates from diesel traders, shows that the US-Iran war has removed more diesel supply from the market than the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Estimates from Energy Aspects, Kpler, and Vortexa indicate that between March and August, Middle East diesel supply averaged a reduction of about 770,000 barrels per day compared to the same period in 2025, more than double the roughly 350,000 barrels per day lost from Russian diesel supply during the same timeframe.

It is worth noting that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on diesel supply has expanded in recent months as Ukraine launched a series of strikes on Russian refineries. In July and August, during Russia's diesel export ban, daily diesel exports fell by 615,000 barrels compared to the same period in 2025. That figure is nearly equivalent to the supply losses from the Middle East.

Critically, the Russian supply loss occurred months after the start of the Iran war. During this period, global fuel and crude inventories had been steadily declining, leaving the market with little buffer to absorb the shock.

Meanwhile, with years of US refinery closures and tightening global fuel supply due to Middle East conflicts, American refiners are running at full capacity to meet demand, making the second quarter one of the most profitable on record. The six largest US refiners, Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), Valero Energy (VLO.US), Exxon Mobil (XOM.US), Phillips 66 (PSX.US), Chevron (CVX.US), and PBF Energy (PBF.US), together earned $24.7 billion from fuel production operations in the second quarter.

Despite the US being one of the world's largest refining nations with a vast network capable of processing millions of barrels of crude daily, refined product prices remain elevated. US refiners are already running at nearly full speed. As of July, refinery utilization rates have been at or above 95% for nearly two months, which raises the risk of equipment failures and maintenance delays, potentially worsening already tight supply conditions.

A diesel export ban could backfire. While theoretically it might temporarily lower prices in parts of the US, it would further tighten supply in Europe, a region facing structural shortages that relies heavily on US exports. During the Middle East war, the US has become the world's "supplier of last resort," with diesel exports surging to a weekly record of nearly 2 million barrels per day last month. A suspension would force European and Latin American buyers to scramble for alternative sources at a moment when few options exist, potentially intensifying already severe inflationary pressures.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US "is reviewing whether it's feasible across overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban could work." However, both US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum oppose the export ban. Wright has emphasized that the US seeks to increase supply, not cut foreign sales. Last week, Wright stated that a ban would create a diesel glut on the US Gulf Coast and force refiners to reduce utilization rates, which would in turn lower gasoline output.

Many analysts similarly believe a diesel export ban could be counterproductive, as domestic refiners losing overseas customers would process less crude, meaning they would also produce less gasoline and jet fuel, pushing up prices for those products. Another complicating factor is that some US regions, such as the Northeast, import diesel. If the US imposes a diesel export ban, global diesel prices would rise, and these regions would ultimately end up paying higher prices.

The US previously imposed a 40-year crude oil export ban following the 1975 Arab oil embargo, at a time when the American refining industry was heavily dependent on foreign crude. Congress lifted that ban in 2015. Given that lifting an export ban under emergency conditions is politically more difficult than imposing one, the oil industry does not want to see another ban introduced.