Gold and Crude Oil Price Trend Analysis and Trading Recommendations

Deep News
昨天

Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis: On March 3, analysis of gold market drivers: On Tuesday during the early Asian trading session, spot gold was trading near $5,331 per ounce. Gold prices rose on Monday, approaching $5,420 per ounce, driven by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which revived safe-haven demand. However, prices retreated below $5,340 as investors took profits. With the conflict potentially spreading to Lebanon and no signs of de-escalation—former President Trump warned of a "larger wave of attacks" incoming—geopolitical tensions continue to underpin gold prices. Additionally, flight cancellations due to recent attacks are expected to severely restrict physical gold flows through the Dubai hub in the coming days, according to three sources. Gold has gained approximately 23% year-to-date, following an impressive 64% surge in 2025, fueled by robust central bank purchasing, ETF net inflows, and expectations for accommodative monetary policy.

Technical Analysis of Gold: From a technical perspective, gold remains a key safe-haven asset with significant potential for further gains. The market awaits key economic data releases this week, which may interplay with geopolitical risks. The data calendar, while not overly dense, includes several important indicators: the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February on Monday, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and January Retail Sales data on Friday. Technically, gold gapped higher at the open, reaching near $5,392 due to weekend developments. It was previously advised that long positions initiated last week should be fully closed for profit, avoiding further chase of upside. While the broader trend remains bullish, practical trading must account for potential corrective pullbacks. Therefore, this week's strategy should focus on cyclical long entries on dips rather than chasing rallies. The daily Bollinger Bands have not yet expanded, and the H4 chart shows a bearish divergence after the gap higher, indicating a high risk of a correction early in the week before resuming the uptrend. Consequently, even with a bullish outlook, entries should consider pullback levels. Key support levels on lower timeframes are at $5,310, $5,250, and $5,200; new long positions can be considered based on price action. The upside potential will depend on geopolitical developments, with the previous high near $5,600 acting as a reference. A break above this level could target $6,000 this week. Overall, the short-term trading strategy for gold today recommends primarily buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Immediate resistance is focused in the $5,420-$5,470 range, while key support lies between $5,260 and $5,210.

Crude Oil Latest Market Trend Analysis: Analysis of crude oil market drivers: On Tuesday (March 3, Beijing time) during early Asian trading, U.S. crude oil was trading around $70.58 per barrel. Oil and natural gas prices surged significantly on Monday, with market focus on disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. JPMorgan warned that a blockage lasting three to four weeks could force Gulf producers to halt output and push Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Consequently, U.S. retail gasoline prices surpassed $3 per gallon, and ultra-low sulfur diesel futures hit a two-year high. Although OPEC+ agreed to increase production in April, analysts note that most producers, except Saudi Arabia, are nearing full capacity.

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices have risen above $70. The moving average system is in a bullish alignment, indicating an upward medium-term trend. Momentum-wise, the MACD indicator is widening above the zero line, suggesting dominant bullish momentum. The medium-term trend is expected to maintain its upward trajectory. On a short-term (1-hour) chart, oil prices experienced a pullback after an initial surge but the overall trend remains upward. The early session candle formed a long upper wick, indicating that the sustainability of bullish momentum requires further confirmation. The moving averages on the short-term chart are in a bullish formation, confirming an upward near-term trend. Intraday, crude oil is likely to continue its upward movement. Overall, the trading strategy for crude oil today recommends primarily buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Immediate resistance is focused in the $72.0-$73.0 range, while key support lies between $69.0 and $68.0.

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