Investment banks have noted that as Middle East tensions show signs of temporary easing, the pricing logic for international crude oil is shifting. Market focus is transitioning from the conflict itself to the progress and pace of restoring transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the ceasefire provides a window for supply recovery, uncertainty remains regarding the reopening of the shipping route. If the restoration process falls short of expectations, upside risks for oil prices are increasing. Against this backdrop, international oil prices have retreated from recent highs near $120 per barrel but continue to hover around $100 per barrel.
JPMorgan stated that current market pricing already reflects expectations for a relatively swift recovery of Strait of Hormuz traffic in the coming months. This includes a restoration of approximately half the normal flow by May and a full recovery by June. However, the bank warned that if the recovery process is slower, only returning to pre-conflict levels by July, it could introduce an upside risk of $15 to $20 per barrel to oil prices. This could push futures prices to retest the mid-March highs near $120 per barrel.
The Middle East conflict had previously led to an almost complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a temporary ceasefire arrangement between the US and Iran and planned negotiations on subsequent issues, the recovery of the shipping route remains uncertain. A significant number of vessels remain stranded in Persian Gulf waters. Analysts estimate that as of April 9, approximately 346 energy-related vessels were trapped in the region, with 241 of them already loaded with cargo. These vessels collectively carry about 104 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, 1.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas, and 5.5 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas.
Bordering Iran to the north, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel connecting the Persian Gulf with global markets, normally handling about one-quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade. In this context, analyses from other institutions also indicate that oil prices are becoming increasingly sensitive to the "pace of recovery." Goldman Sachs forecasts that under a baseline scenario where shipping gradually resumes within one month, the average price for Brent crude in the third and fourth quarters would be $82 and $80 per barrel, respectively. However, if recovery is delayed, the price average could return to above $100 per barrel, potentially approaching $120 in extreme scenarios.
Bank of America Securities has raised its baseline price forecast for Brent crude this year to $92.5 per barrel. It noted that oil prices could climb further if the conflict is prolonged or if energy infrastructure is damaged. Based on historical calculations, in an extreme scenario involving large-scale, sustained supply disruptions, oil prices could potentially rise to a range of $150 to $200 per barrel.
Overall, while institutions differ in their specific price forecasts, their analyses are converging on one point: the progress of the Strait of Hormuz recovery, and whether new disruptions occur during this process, will be a key variable determining the direction of oil prices. The current price level near $100 per barrel reflects market expectations for a gradual supply recovery in the short term. However, with the shipping route not yet fully restored and the risk of regional volatility remaining, these expectations themselves remain fragile.
Washington and Tehran are expected to hold talks this weekend, with the status of the shipping route being a key focus for both sides. The outcome of these negotiations will become the next focal point for market attention. In summary, this week represents a critical transition period for oil prices, moving from a "war logic" to a "logistics and diplomacy logic." The $100 level is not just a price point but represents a fragile balance line for the global energy market, caught between supply tightness and ceasefire expectations.