During Asian trading hours on Monday, spot gold extended its decline for the ninth consecutive session, trading near $4,330 per ounce with an intraday drop of approximately 3.7%. Earlier, it touched an 11-week low of $4,319.66. Although the price found some support around the $4,300 level, a meaningful rebound remains elusive. Over the past four weeks, gold has fallen more than 8%, retreating significantly from recent highs above $5,300, reflecting a market reassessment of safe-haven demand amid persistent pressure from high interest rate environments.

The primary headwind for gold stems from hawkish pivots by major central banks. The Bank of Japan maintained its normalization bias, warning that Middle East conflicts driving up crude prices could intensify inflationary pressures. The Bank of England signaled a hawkish shift, hinting at a potential rate hike as early as April to counter inflation spurred by tensions involving Iran. The European Central Bank adopted a similarly hawkish tone, indicating readiness to act on April 30 if geopolitical strains further fuel inflation. The Federal Reserve raised its year-end PCE inflation forecast, projecting only one rate cut this year and one in 2027, citing energy price risks as a key factor.

These signals have collectively pushed up real interest rates and opportunity costs, significantly diminishing the appeal of non-yielding gold.

A strong U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields have also weighed heavily on gold. The Fed’s hawkish outlook has kept bond yields high, while the U.S. dollar index strengthened in tandem. A stronger dollar reduces gold's attractiveness as it is priced in the currency, and higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. During Monday’s Asian session, the dollar index edged higher, trading near 99.70 with a gain of about 0.2%.

Although geopolitical risks provided some safe-haven support, expectations of central bank tightening continue to dominate, keeping gold in a downward trend.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran offered limited support. A 48-hour ultimatum from former President Donald Trump demanded that Iran unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its power grid. Iran’s parliamentary speaker retaliated, labeling energy and water supply facilities in the Gulf as legitimate targets and threatening "irreversible destruction." These energy-related threats heightened risk-off sentiment, helping gold hold above $4,300.

However, hawkish central bank pressure far outweighs geopolitical premiums. Traders are reluctant to aggressively buy gold ahead of Trump’s "strategic gamble," fearing that a successful ultimatum and the strait’s reopening could quickly restore supply, capping any rebound.

Technically, gold signals a strong bearish outlook. On the 4-hour chart, it broke below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 4,981.68 and fell through $4,600. The MACD remains in negative territory with its histogram deeply negative, while the RSI hovers around 14, well below the neutral level.

On the downside, key support lies at the psychological $4,300 level. A decisive break below this could open a path toward $4,250. On the upside, resistance is seen first at $4,500, with stronger resistance at the 200-period EMA. As long as gold remains below this dynamic resistance, any rebound may be viewed as a selling opportunity.

Gold continues to trade near its annual low of $4,300, having fallen for nine straight days. Hawkish central bank expectations are driving the market: the Fed raised inflation projections, European and U.K. central banks hinted at April rate hikes, and the Bank of Japan maintained its normalization track—all lifting real rates and strengthening the dollar, heavily pressuring non-yielding gold.

Although U.S.-Iran energy threats provided limited safe-haven support, helping defend $4,300, traders remain cautious about the potential success of Trump’s ultimatum, restraining bullish momentum. Technical indicators remain strongly bearish.

Gold remains caught between "central bank tightening" and "geopolitical避险," with the former currently dominating. Short-term rebound potential appears limited, while the longer-term trend will depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and how conflict dynamics evolve.

As of 13:31 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,318.38 per ounce.