Orient Securities: Domestic Substitution in Optical Modules Deepens, Home Appliance Conglomerates' Cross-Border Layout Creates Positive Synergy

Stock News
07/08

Orient Securities Company Limited has released a research report indicating that the competitive landscape of the optical module sector shows a pattern of "one leader and several strong players." Technological barriers are evolving towards a 3.0 era characterized by independent design of optical chips and advanced packaging, with the process of domestic substitution continuing to deepen. Home appliance companies are leveraging stable cash flow from their mature core businesses to support investments in hard technology, seeking a "second growth curve" within the AI computing power industry chain.

Hisense Group's technology capital matrix encompassing "home appliances, display, and communications" is becoming increasingly refined. Naphoton, as the group's strategic move in the AI computing power infrastructure track, is expected to form deep synergistic effects with Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) and Hisens Video (600060.SH) in areas such as global operations, supply chain management, and technological R&D. The main viewpoints of Orient Securities Company Limited are as follows:

AI Computing Power Drives Optical Modules into a "New Moore's Law" Cycle

The global optical communications industry is undergoing a structural shift from traditional telecom-driven demand to AI computing power-driven demand. The explosion of the Token economy has triggered an arms race in computing power infrastructure, making data center interconnect bandwidth a core bottleneck. The iteration cycle for optical modules has compressed from 4 years to 2-3 years, leading to a surge in demand for 800G/1.6T high-speed products. According to LightCounting predictions, the global Ethernet optical module market is expected to reach $26 billion by 2026, with the data communications market becoming the primary engine.

Home Appliance Leaders Venture into Optical Communications

Hisense Group has directly entered optical module manufacturing through Naphoton (a top-five global optical module manufacturer). Concurrently, through its controlling stake in GanZhao Optoelectronics held by Hisense Video, it has positioned itself in VCSEL/Micro LED optical chips and CPO technology. Anfu Technology (parent company of Nanfu Battery) has strategically invested in Suzhou Yilan Micro via industrial investment, focusing on silicon photonics heterogeneous integrated thin-film lithium niobate chips.

The commonality in these cross-border ventures by home appliance companies lies in using the stable cash flow from their mature main businesses to support hard technology investments, seeking a "second growth curve" within the AI computing power industry chain.

Key Strategic Moves within the Hisense Ecosystem Foster Positive Interaction

Naphoton is Hisense Group's core strategic layout in the optical communications and AI computing power infrastructure fields. Hisense Group Holding, as the controlling shareholder (holding a combined 48.61% stake), not only provides capital and industrial resource backing but also creates potential business interaction and technological synergy with the listed platforms of Hisense Video and Hisense Home Appliances.

Hisense Group holds approximately 39% of Hisense Home Appliances and about 48% of Hisense Video. The two listed companies are highly aligned in terms of the group's strategic direction and equity structure and have already engaged in substantive business collaboration in recent years, such as ASEAN market expansion and kitchen and bathroom system integration.

Hisense Video's controlling stake in GanZhao Optoelectronics positions it in optical chips and CPO technology, creating potential technological complementarity with Naphoton's optical module business.

Risk Factors to Consider

The report highlights several risk factors, including product development and technological iteration risks, AI computing power capital expenditure falling short of expectations, international trade frictions and tariff risks, slower-than-expected yield improvements for optical chips, and customer concentration risk.

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