Spot gold surged during early trading on August 11, breaking through the $4,400 per ounce mark and gaining over 0.2%, hitting its highest level since June 8. Over the past week, spot gold has climbed more than 7%, recording its largest single-week gain since January 19.

On August 10, spot gold continued its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of $4,395 per ounce. Analysts note that a weekly gain exceeding 7% is unusual in recent years. Historically, each sharp rally has been a correction of severe external shocks, representing a rebound from an excessive decline in gold prices.

For example, after a prolonged effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, tensions have eased somewhat. Additionally, expectations of a US interest rate hike have weakened recently, providing an opportunity for gold prices to turn stronger. Furthermore, last week's joint intervention by the US and Japan to weaken the yen led to a softer US dollar, which also contributed to gold's strength.

This round of gains has both a corrective element and solid fundamental support. Data from the World Gold Council shows that in the second quarter of 2026, global central bank net gold purchases reached 288.9 tonnes, a 62% year-on-year increase, setting a record high for the second quarter. A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, while 89% expect global official gold reserves to rise, helping to stabilize the confidence of other investors.

On one hand, rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening US dollar; on the other hand, positive fund inflows, coupled with continued large-scale gold purchases by central banks providing a floor, have led to a generally optimistic market outlook for gold's future trajectory. However, it is important to note that the rapid 7% short-term gain has already accumulated significant profit-taking positions. Gold prices face multiple uncertainties ahead, including policy shifts, the US dollar, and geopolitical risks.

For ordinary investors, gold has never been a "sure-win" speculative instrument. Instead, it should serve as a "ballast stone" in a family asset portfolio to diversify risk. Rational allocation and avoiding blind chasing of rallies are essential to truly benefit from gold's long-term value preservation.