Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that since 2025, supply and demand have jointly driven the expansion of instant retail channels. This round of channel innovation is expected to provide structural opportunities for liquor brands, with companies possessing strong channel capabilities and financial strength in the baijiu and beer sectors poised to benefit.

Retail channels are undergoing transformation and showing structural growth, with instant retail becoming a highlight in liquor distribution channels. 1) Baijiu continues to navigate the bottom phase, while national famous brands and regional leading liquor companies demonstrate relatively strong resilience and possess leading channel development capabilities and financial strength; 2) Beer, as the second-largest alcoholic beverage category with a broad customer base, shows high participation in instant retail.

**Instant Retail: Market Prosperity with Active Liquor Industry Participation**

China's retail industry has evolved through traditional retail, e-commerce, and new retail phases. Instant retail significantly shortens delivery times and enriches consumer choices. In recent years, China's instant retail market has expanded rapidly, with the 2025 food delivery competition providing marginal catalysis, and the industry expected to maintain double-digit growth in the coming years.

Specifically in the alcoholic beverage sector, liquor instant retail originated from vertical platforms like 1919 and Jiuxiaoer, accelerating around 2015 to form four channel models: vertical platforms, comprehensive platforms, store-warehouse integration, and front-end warehousing. Simultaneously, liquor companies have increased their deployment and cooperation, significantly improving the penetration rate of liquor instant retail.

The firm believes the rise of liquor instant retail stems from three main factors: First, changing consumer habits, with consumers increasingly pursuing convenience and seeking rapid satisfaction after spontaneous demands arise. Second, alignment with value-for-money needs, compressing distribution links while saving operational costs, combined with platform fee subsidies, creating obvious price advantages. Third, supply-side drivers, with channel operators seeking incremental growth through emerging channels, and brand owners willing to cooperate on product launches and promotions to increase reach and revenue.

**Instant Retail as an Exploration During Baijiu Industry Transformation, Expected to Continue Expanding**

For the baijiu industry, the firm believes instant retail has both advantages and disadvantages. Benefits include efficient fulfillment creating incremental volume and helping brands reach younger demographics. Drawbacks include online channels' inability to provide social interaction, authentication services, and emotional value, potential impact on product pricing systems, and possible brand image challenges.

Historically, baijiu cycle transitions typically accompany channel transformations. With the current industry undergoing deep adjustment, weaker pricing and sales momentum, coupled with higher inventory levels, are impacting traditional offline channel profits and cash flow, while online channels remain relatively prosperous. Embracing instant retail represents a viable adaptation strategy.

From an international perspective, overseas markets have similar initiatives, proving the feasibility of alcoholic beverage instant retail. Considering that overseas consumer goods' online penetration rates are generally lower than domestic levels, especially in Europe and America where delivery efficiency and cost advantages are limited, the firm believes domestic alcoholic beverage instant retail still has significant development potential.

According to Meituan Shanggou estimates, China's alcoholic beverage instant retail market size is expected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2027, with compound growth rates approaching mid-double digits. Core categories including baijiu and beer are expected to benefit.

**Risk Factors:** Channel transformation and expansion falling short of expectations, persistent weak demand, and wholesale price volatility.