KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Tesla shares climbed a day ahead of first-quarter deliveries data expected Wednesday.

• Analysts estimate deliveries could rise less than 2% year-over-year and fall from the previous quarter.

• The release follows recent data showing declining sales in Europe and China.

Tesla shares climbed a day ahead of first-quarter deliveries data expected Wednesday.

The stock gained nearly 4% to close at $268.46 Tuesday. Analysts on average expect Tesla to report 393,000 deliveries in the first quarter, according to Visible Alpha, in what would represent a less than 2% rise year-over-year, and a decline from the previous quarter's 495,570 vehicles.

Wedbush analysts, who hold a bullish $550 price target for Tesla, well above the average target of $349 compiled by Visible Alpha, recently said they expect "a very soft rip the band-aid off" figure in the 355,000 to 365,000 range.1

Wedbush. "Tesla Musk Took Big Step Forward; Street Looking Beyond Weak 1Q Deliveries On Deck."

Tesla has struggled so far in 2025, particularly in the key markets of Europe and China. In the first two months of the year, Tesla saw just over 19,000 new vehicle registrations in the European Union, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association.2 That's down roughly 50% year-over-year. Tesla's China sales also reportedly dropped close to 50% in February from the same time last year.

Meanwhile, the electric vehicle maker has faced political backlash to CEO Elon Musk’s role at the helm of the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency, which Wedbush said is "clearly at play and a major factor" in Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers.

The delivery data comes after a particularly tough period for the company's stock. Tesla ranked among the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in the first quarter, with shares losing more than a third of their value in the period amid worries about lagging sales, tariff uncertainty, and souring brand sentiment.