June's market performance has concluded, and the results of our various market prediction polls are now in.

A clear characteristic of this round of voting is evident: participants were generally accurate in judging the broader direction, yet sentiment remained easily swayed by short-term extreme volatility.

This was particularly true for more volatile assets like gold and oil, where market divergence grew more pronounced as prices neared key psychological levels.

Conversely, polls related to the Nasdaq and SpaceX better reflect investors' long-term optimism coupled with short-term caution towards tech assets.

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Nasdaq 100: Majority Correct on Direction, But High-Point Expectations Were Not Aggressive

The poll asked: What will the Nasdaq 100's closing price be at the end of June?

The distribution of votes shows the market was not broadly pessimistic about the Nasdaq.

Users selecting "above 29,000" totaled 83%, indicating most investors believed the index would maintain strong support in June.

However, only 4% chose "above 31,000," suggesting that while bullish on AI and tech stocks, participants remained cautious about a significant short-term surge higher.

This aligns with June's market characteristics: the AI theme continued to support risk appetite in U.S. stocks, but after a sustained rally, capital became noticeably more restrained about chasing highs.

In other words, the consensus on the Nasdaq was neither blindly bearish nor wildly bullish, but rather a leaning towards the view that the tech stock trend persists, though its short-term upside needs to be assessed step by step.

Gold: Market Sentiment Briefly Turned Bearish, But Key Support Ultimately Held

There were two gold-related polls.

The first asked: Will spot gold fall below 4000 this week? In this poll, the majority of users made the correct judgment.

This indicates the market was clearly sensing short-term pressure on gold at the time, with expectations for a price pullback being quite pronounced.

From a market logic perspective, after its prior rapid ascent, gold inherently had technical correction needs.

Coupled with factors like fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and interest rate cut expectations, a short-term dip below 4000 was not surprising.

This type of poll reflects that after a substantial asset rally, investors' sensitivity to short-term corrections increases significantly.

The second question was: Will spot gold fall below 3900 in June? This question, more probing than "falling below 4000," tested whether the market would see a deeper correction.

The final results showed that while the gold price corrected, it did not breach the 3900 level.

The majority of users who selected "no" were also accurate in their judgment.

This suggests that while acknowledging short-term pressure on gold, participants did not interpret the correction as a trend reversal.

Looking at these two gold polls together, the conclusion is clear: the market accepted that gold would correct but did not believe it would crash.

4000 represented a short-term sentiment threshold, while 3900 was closer to a trend support level.

Breaking below 4000 indicated short-term weakness in gold, but not breaking 3900 showed that medium-term capital still provided a floor for the metal.

Crude Oil: Greater Divergence Than Gold, But Strong Bottom Support Remained

There were also two crude oil-related polls.

The first asked: Will NYMEX crude oil fall below 70 this week? This was the most evenly split of all polls, with only a 2-percentage-point difference between sides.

This indicates significant market divergence on oil's short-term direction at the time.

On one hand, oil prices are subject to intense short-term volatility from factors like demand expectations, inventory changes, and geopolitical tensions.

On the other, the $70 level itself is a major psychological barrier.

The eventual break below $70 signaled short-term bearish dominance, but the close voting split shows the market lacked a one-sided consensus.

The second question was: Will NYMEX crude oil fall below 65 in June? Compared to $70, $65 represents a deeper support level.

The majority of users correctly believed it would not fall below 65.

This indicates participants were psychologically prepared for a short-term oil price decline but did not believe crude would enter a steep downtrend.

Examined together, these two oil polls are very similar to the gold ones: the market believed oil could break support short-term but did not expect a continuous deep decline.

Breaking below $70 was more a result of short-term sentiment and capital flows, while not breaking $65 suggests fundamental support still exists beneath the market.

From a trading perspective, the oil polls also remind us that key round-number levels are easily breached short-term, but what truly determines the trend is whether the core support level below them holds.

SpaceX: Long-Term Optimism Does Not Equal Unlimited Short-Term Valuation Surges

The poll asked: Will SpaceX's valuation surpass $3 trillion in June? This was the poll with the strongest market consensus.

While SpaceX remains one of the world's most closely watched private tech companies, with its commercial spaceflight, Starlink, and rocket reusability businesses fueling immense imagination, the expectation of a $3 trillion valuation within June was clearly too aggressive.

82% of users selected "no," indicating broad recognition of SpaceX's long-term value but a cool-headed approach towards short-term valuation leaps.

This type of poll reflects an important investment principle: a good company does not mean any price is reasonable, and long-term potential does not guarantee short-term realization.

Especially for a company like SpaceX, whose valuation is highly dependent on future expectations, any fluctuations in market liquidity, risk appetite, or tech sector sentiment can limit the pace of valuation increases.

Overall June Poll Summary: Correct on Support, But Still Sensitive to Short-Term Volatility

Looking at the various polls together, June's market exhibited three clear characteristics.

First, tech assets remained strong. The Nasdaq 100 ultimately closed in the 30,000–31,000 range, confirming that AI and tech stocks were still the market's most crucial support pillar, and most users were not significantly bearish on the index.

Second, both gold and oil experienced short-term breaks of support but did not collapse deeply. Gold broke below 4000 but not 3900; oil broke below $70 but not $65. This indicates short-term market volatility without a descent into a trend-driven crash.

Third, rationality prevailed towards highly-valued assets. The option for SpaceX to hit $3 trillion in June garnered only 18% support, showing that while investors appreciate tech growth stories, they no longer readily believe in unlimited short-term valuation expansion.

Conclusion: The Polls as a True Barometer of Market Sentiment

These June polls are quite instructive.

They not only reveal who was right or wrong but, more importantly, reflect the collective market sentiment at the time: the Nasdaq representing risk appetite, gold representing safe-haven demand, oil representing macro and geopolitical expectations, and SpaceX representing tech valuation imagination.

The results show a market that was not broadly pessimistic but had not completely lost its rationality.

Participants believed in the long-term trend of AI and tech stocks while understanding that short-term rallies invite corrections; they acknowledged downward pressure on gold and oil without easily betting on extreme breakdowns.

This might be the most accurate snapshot of the June market: the trend persists, but volatility has increased; opportunities remain, but chasing highs requires caution.